Short

Will BTC mirror the prior path of SPY?

Updated

-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-
Hey guys, EXTREMELY excited to share something with you, but before I begin there are a few things I need to cover:

A special thanks to my viewers who have supported me for ~16 months of weekly live streams. It is only because of them that I came across this, what could end up being one of my most important discoveries ever (yes that includes the wyckoff top earlier this year).
Try to keep an open mind as I describe the setup I've identified - shed your bias before you marinate on the content.
As a general rule, I'm a bitcoin maxi and wholeheartedly believe it will be the next global reserve currency.
I'm not so easily fooled as to believe that BTC will forever be "up only", but that it does indeed follow general market rules and tendencies (support, resistance, retests, etc).
Lastly, this is not financial advice & everyone is encouraged to do your own research.

-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-

LET'S BEGIN:

Ok Jack, so what are we looking at here?
Good question. In short, we're looking at a *SETUP* for what might be coming soon with respect to BTC. Visually, what I've put together for you is two charts: the top being the S&P 500 (SPY) with weekly candles & the bottom being Bitcoin (BTC) with daily candles. As can be seen, they are very similar when lined up as shown.
What's the TLDR?
BTC likely headed to sub 30k (breaking the previous lows), then full send to infinity.
TLDR makes me tingle, but what are the details?
Ok, handful of things you should focus on.

1) Let's start with the SPY. First and foremost, a trade range was formed on a macro time frame & price bounced between the highs and lows over some period of time. At some point, price broke out above the range highs, but then returned to the range. After this move, price fell swiftly, breaking the lows of the trade range. After a bit of consolidation, price returned into the range, where it never came back down again. That break of the lows was KEY to the future price action.

2) Now let's turn our attention to BTC. As can be seen, BTC recently broke up and made a new ATH, only to have swiftly fallen back into the range (where it rests now). Should it mirror the SPY, we will soon see price fall below 30k (as this is the trade range floor currently), then bounce back up & reclaim the range - never returning to these sub 30k levels again.

3) Note how in both scenarios, the highs and lows breaking are the sell/buy signals that the market was looking for. In similar vein, if the scenario plays out, then buying sub 30k would be the highest R/R possible in current trade range.

4) Also worth pointing out - as crypto markets are 24/7, the price action tends to move MUCH quicker than traditional markets. Patterns that might take years to play out with stonks will only take weeks/months in crypto (usually). That being said, it does not bother me in the least that the SPY range took ~15 years to play out while the crypto setup might only end up being 1.5 - 2 years.
Is there any global news events that might support what you're proposing?
Putting TA aside and focusing on FA for a moment, the USD (what has been the global reserve currency for a ~century) has seen an astounding level of devaluation thanks to out-of-control brrrrr printing by those in charge, as a result of the COVID pandemic. This has had a significant affect globally, as countries pivot away from holding large amounts of USD and instead move into gold, real estate, and yes even BTC. Some countries are making shifts to move their entire economies into BTC (shoutout to Jack Mallers and his role with El Salvador). All this being said, if BTC is being treated as something to be desired and accumulated, does it seem so crazy to think the same massive entities that spent decades buying indexes would spend a few years buying BTC with the similar playbook of "Form a trade range, run the highs, run the lows, send it".
Is there anything going on in other markets that might add confidence to this setup?
There is! Let me start by saying BTC dropping to sub 30k would likely not happen in a bubble, but instead in line with some sort of macro sell off event that affected all markets (think COVID selloff in March 2020). That being said, did you know I've been tracking a DJI distribution event, with a target of ~-15% from current price? I've linked this in the "related ideas below".
At what point is this theory invalidated?
New highs are key, eyeing ~65K+. Price needs to not only break this ~30k to 65K trade range, it needs to leave it behind for good. High confidence trade might be to long the breakout of the trade range with stops back inside of it. Currently, we're back in the range after breaking up, so my eyes automatically look to the lows. This would be the case no matter what asset is presented & no matter how it compared to historic moves in other markets (like SPY in this case). This is just "trade range trading 101".

That's it! Feel free to comment below if you have any questions. Let's see how this all plays out.

Note

All goes according to plan. Lows have been breached. Now comes a period of consolidation (likely MONTHS) followed by an uptrend to new highs. High chance this correlates directly with the pre-halving pump with actual sustained bull rain taking place AFTER the BTC halving.

Crypt0Jack

Follow me on each of my platforms to keep up to date:

Twitch.tv/CryptoJack
Twitter.com/@CryptoJackLive
tradingview.com/u/Crypt0Jack/
youtube.com/@cryptojacklive

Also on:

Related publications

$DJI Undergoing Wyckoff Distribution?

by Crypt0Jack

Disclaimer

The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.