🔻 SPY down 21% | IWM down 29% from ATHs as of April 7, 2025.
After months of tracking the Trump tariff narrative and comparing it with the 2018–2019 playbook, we're now living the sequel. But this time, it's happening on steroids, faster and with more chaos.
🧠 Context: Why This Isn’t Just Another Correction
It’s not purely about macroeconomic numbers or earnings calls anymore. The market's volatility is now emotionally and politically driven — centered around one dominant voice:
Donald Trump.
He’s not just reacting to the market — he’s orchestrating the market. And every tweet or announcement can change the direction of the S&P in real time.
🔁 2018–2019 vs. 2025: Chart Overlay Insights
📉 In 2018, the first round of tariffs triggered a -20% drop in SPY — followed by a powerful reversal.
📉 In 2025, the same pattern repeats — another ~-21% drop from highs.
SPY printed a nearly identical two-bottom structure
This sharpens my conviction that we may have already bottomed — barring another external macro event outside the tariff story.
🧩 The Tweet Timeline
Initial Setup Tweet:
"THIS IS A GREAT TIME TO BUY!!! DJT"
A tweet that initially seemed random, but now clearly was a setup.
The Main Policy Drop:
On the same day, hours later, Trump officially dropped the real bomb: a massive 125% tariff hike on China, coupled with a 90-day relief for all other nations.
📈 The market exploded: SPY ended the day +10.5% — one of the biggest intraday reversals in recent history.
Fake Tweet Incident:
Just a few days prior, a fake “90-day pause” tweet circulated, reportedly backed by a journalist referencing a major bank. It turned out to be false — but it caused a sharp 20-minute rally, followed by a dump when it was denied.
🪙 That wasn’t the “Golden Tweet.” But it was what I call a Silver Tweet — a smaller catalyst that injected brief optimism.
👉 Silver Tweets bring air back into a suffocating market. But the real bounce… needs a Golden Tweet.
🧨 And Then the Wildcard:
Despite the massive selloff, the 10-year yield went up, not down — likely the result of a powerful player dumping bonds to counter Trump’s objective of yield suppression.
But that’s not the only possible force at play:
Hedge funds are now facing margin calls.
This has triggered forced liquidations across equities, bonds, and even certain safe-haven positions.
That’s why we’re seeing the unusual combination of rising yields and rising gold — while broader equity markets were still heading aggressively lower.
This suggests:
A hidden battle of titans
Broad rebalancing under pressure
And that Trump may no longer be fully in control of the chaos he set in motion.
🔭 Trade Zones
📌 IWM
Entry: $179–185
Short-Term Target: $195–205
Mid-Term Target Target: $270–280 (or Retest ATH)
Max Downside Estimate: -5 to -7%
Stop-Loss: Weekly close below $171
📌 SPY
Current Level: $517.99
Short-Term Target: $548–556
Mid-Term Target: Retest ATH ($612+)
Max Further Downside Estimate: -3 to -5% from low
Stop-Loss: Weekly close below $485
📌 Note: Volume on reversal was highest since Covid crash, signaling serious accumulation.
📉 What This Could Mean
Trump’s pressure campaign is likely aimed at forcing the Fed to cut rates.
The 90-day pause was meant to cool global reaction — while keeping pressure on China.
However, if yields keep rising and inflation picks back up, the Fed might get stuck, causing even more market instability.
This isn't just a tariff tantrum — it's a chess match with real capital on the line.
🔮 Final Word
We're in the middle of the unraveling, and the market is still testing the gains made during the relief rally. But I’m more confident than ever in my thesis — unless another macro shock comes into play.
📉 We now have:
2 matching 20%+ drops (2018 + 2025)
Matching double bottoms
Trump-driven catalysts unfolding
📲 The markets will react more to Trump's feed than to Powell’s tone or CPI reports.
That said, this isn't a guarantee. If Trump loses control of this chaos, or geopolitical escalation spills over — the downside isn't out of the question.
The only certainty right now: The market is watching one man.
#TrumpIndex #SPY #IWM #MacroNarrative #GoldenTweet #SilverTweet #MarketCycle #Fibonacci #Tariffs #TradingViewIdeas
After months of tracking the Trump tariff narrative and comparing it with the 2018–2019 playbook, we're now living the sequel. But this time, it's happening on steroids, faster and with more chaos.
🧠 Context: Why This Isn’t Just Another Correction
It’s not purely about macroeconomic numbers or earnings calls anymore. The market's volatility is now emotionally and politically driven — centered around one dominant voice:
Donald Trump.
He’s not just reacting to the market — he’s orchestrating the market. And every tweet or announcement can change the direction of the S&P in real time.
🔁 2018–2019 vs. 2025: Chart Overlay Insights
📉 In 2018, the first round of tariffs triggered a -20% drop in SPY — followed by a powerful reversal.
📉 In 2025, the same pattern repeats — another ~-21% drop from highs.
SPY printed a nearly identical two-bottom structure
This sharpens my conviction that we may have already bottomed — barring another external macro event outside the tariff story.
🧩 The Tweet Timeline
Initial Setup Tweet:
"THIS IS A GREAT TIME TO BUY!!! DJT"
A tweet that initially seemed random, but now clearly was a setup.
The Main Policy Drop:
On the same day, hours later, Trump officially dropped the real bomb: a massive 125% tariff hike on China, coupled with a 90-day relief for all other nations.
📈 The market exploded: SPY ended the day +10.5% — one of the biggest intraday reversals in recent history.
Fake Tweet Incident:
Just a few days prior, a fake “90-day pause” tweet circulated, reportedly backed by a journalist referencing a major bank. It turned out to be false — but it caused a sharp 20-minute rally, followed by a dump when it was denied.
🪙 That wasn’t the “Golden Tweet.” But it was what I call a Silver Tweet — a smaller catalyst that injected brief optimism.
👉 Silver Tweets bring air back into a suffocating market. But the real bounce… needs a Golden Tweet.
🧨 And Then the Wildcard:
Despite the massive selloff, the 10-year yield went up, not down — likely the result of a powerful player dumping bonds to counter Trump’s objective of yield suppression.
But that’s not the only possible force at play:
Hedge funds are now facing margin calls.
This has triggered forced liquidations across equities, bonds, and even certain safe-haven positions.
That’s why we’re seeing the unusual combination of rising yields and rising gold — while broader equity markets were still heading aggressively lower.
This suggests:
A hidden battle of titans
Broad rebalancing under pressure
And that Trump may no longer be fully in control of the chaos he set in motion.
🔭 Trade Zones
📌 IWM
Entry: $179–185
Short-Term Target: $195–205
Mid-Term Target Target: $270–280 (or Retest ATH)
Max Downside Estimate: -5 to -7%
Stop-Loss: Weekly close below $171
📌 SPY
Current Level: $517.99
Short-Term Target: $548–556
Mid-Term Target: Retest ATH ($612+)
Max Further Downside Estimate: -3 to -5% from low
Stop-Loss: Weekly close below $485
📌 Note: Volume on reversal was highest since Covid crash, signaling serious accumulation.
📉 What This Could Mean
Trump’s pressure campaign is likely aimed at forcing the Fed to cut rates.
The 90-day pause was meant to cool global reaction — while keeping pressure on China.
However, if yields keep rising and inflation picks back up, the Fed might get stuck, causing even more market instability.
This isn't just a tariff tantrum — it's a chess match with real capital on the line.
🔮 Final Word
We're in the middle of the unraveling, and the market is still testing the gains made during the relief rally. But I’m more confident than ever in my thesis — unless another macro shock comes into play.
📉 We now have:
2 matching 20%+ drops (2018 + 2025)
Matching double bottoms
Trump-driven catalysts unfolding
📲 The markets will react more to Trump's feed than to Powell’s tone or CPI reports.
That said, this isn't a guarantee. If Trump loses control of this chaos, or geopolitical escalation spills over — the downside isn't out of the question.
The only certainty right now: The market is watching one man.
#TrumpIndex #SPY #IWM #MacroNarrative #GoldenTweet #SilverTweet #MarketCycle #Fibonacci #Tariffs #TradingViewIdeas
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.