SPY Stock Analysis & GEX Options Insights – Feb. 18
Technical Analysis (TA) for SPY
* Current Price Action: SPY is in a strong uptrend, consolidating near $610, which is a key resistance level. The price is showing signs of exhaustion but remains bullish.
* Support & Resistance Levels:
* Immediate Resistance: $610 – If SPY breaks and holds above this, it could see more upside.
* Next Resistance: $615 – Aligns with the 2nd Call Wall from GEX data.
* Major Resistance: $620 – A significant resistance level where price may struggle.
* First Support: $607 – If SPY pulls back, this could be the first bounce zone.
* Major Support: $600 – A break below this level would shift the momentum bearish.
* Critical Breakdown Level: $595 – Losing this level could lead to a larger sell-off.
* Indicators:
* MACD: Flat, indicating that SPY is in consolidation mode at resistance.
* Stochastic RSI: Oversold, suggesting a potential short-term bounce.
Options Flow & GEX Analysis
* GEX (Gamma Exposure):
* Highest Positive NetGEX / Call Resistance: $620 – The most critical resistance area.
* 94.55% Call Wall: $615 – A major resistance zone that could cap further upside.
* 72.37% Call Wall: $610 – SPY is testing this level, and a breakout could be bullish.
* Put Wall Support: $600 – The strongest downside support based on options positioning.
* 3rd Put Wall: $595 – A key level to watch if SPY starts breaking down.
* IV & Sentiment:
* IV Rank (IVR): 13.9 → Low implied volatility, meaning options are cheaper.
* IVx Avg: 13.9 → A stable volatility level.
* Options Sentiment: Puts = 74.8% → A heavy bearish positioning in options flow, possibly hedging against downside risk.
Trade Setups
📈 Bullish Scenario (Breakout Play):
* Entry: Above $610 with strong volume.
* Target: $615, then $620 (Gamma Squeeze Potential).
* Stop Loss: Below $607.
📉 Bearish Scenario (Breakdown Play):
* Entry: Below $607.
* Target: $600 or $595 (Put Support).
* Stop Loss: Above $610.
Final Thoughts
* SPY remains bullish but is facing strong resistance at $610.
* A breakout above $610 could lead to a rally toward $615-$620.
* A failure to hold $607 might trigger a pullback to $600 or lower.
* Best Trade Approach: Watch for confirmation of a breakout above $610 or breakdown below $607 before entering a trade.
🚨 This analysis is for educational purposes only. Trade responsibly and manage risk! 🚨
* Current Price Action: SPY is in a strong uptrend, consolidating near $610, which is a key resistance level. The price is showing signs of exhaustion but remains bullish.
* Support & Resistance Levels:
* Immediate Resistance: $610 – If SPY breaks and holds above this, it could see more upside.
* Next Resistance: $615 – Aligns with the 2nd Call Wall from GEX data.
* Major Resistance: $620 – A significant resistance level where price may struggle.
* First Support: $607 – If SPY pulls back, this could be the first bounce zone.
* Major Support: $600 – A break below this level would shift the momentum bearish.
* Critical Breakdown Level: $595 – Losing this level could lead to a larger sell-off.
* Indicators:
* MACD: Flat, indicating that SPY is in consolidation mode at resistance.
* Stochastic RSI: Oversold, suggesting a potential short-term bounce.
Options Flow & GEX Analysis
* GEX (Gamma Exposure):
* Highest Positive NetGEX / Call Resistance: $620 – The most critical resistance area.
* 94.55% Call Wall: $615 – A major resistance zone that could cap further upside.
* 72.37% Call Wall: $610 – SPY is testing this level, and a breakout could be bullish.
* Put Wall Support: $600 – The strongest downside support based on options positioning.
* 3rd Put Wall: $595 – A key level to watch if SPY starts breaking down.
* IV & Sentiment:
* IV Rank (IVR): 13.9 → Low implied volatility, meaning options are cheaper.
* IVx Avg: 13.9 → A stable volatility level.
* Options Sentiment: Puts = 74.8% → A heavy bearish positioning in options flow, possibly hedging against downside risk.
Trade Setups
📈 Bullish Scenario (Breakout Play):
* Entry: Above $610 with strong volume.
* Target: $615, then $620 (Gamma Squeeze Potential).
* Stop Loss: Below $607.
📉 Bearish Scenario (Breakdown Play):
* Entry: Below $607.
* Target: $600 or $595 (Put Support).
* Stop Loss: Above $610.
Final Thoughts
* SPY remains bullish but is facing strong resistance at $610.
* A breakout above $610 could lead to a rally toward $615-$620.
* A failure to hold $607 might trigger a pullback to $600 or lower.
* Best Trade Approach: Watch for confirmation of a breakout above $610 or breakdown below $607 before entering a trade.
🚨 This analysis is for educational purposes only. Trade responsibly and manage risk! 🚨
Trade active
SPY Market Preview – Gap & Go or Gap Fill First? (Feb 18, 2025) 🚀
1️⃣ Current Market Overview (Pre-Market)
* SPY gapped up this morning, trading around $612.09.
* Resistance Zone: $612.50 - $613.00 (potential rejection area).
* Support Zone: $610.50 - $609.50 (key demand areas).
* Indicators:
* MACD: Bullish crossover, confirming upward momentum.
* Stoch RSI: Cooling off from overbought, but not yet oversold.
2️⃣ Gap & Go vs. Gap Fill Scenario
🔹 Scenario 1: Gap & Go (Bullish Momentum) ✔️ Triggers:
* SPY holds above $611.50 and builds higher lows.
* Volume increases with a strong push through $612.50.
* Big tech (AAPL, MSFT, NVDA) shows strength at open.
📌 Bullish Targets:
* $613.00 (psychological level).
* $615.00 (extended move if momentum sustains).
* If a breakout holds, we could see a trend continuation towards $617+.
🔻 Scenario 2: Gap Fill Before Move Up (Consolidation & Retest) ✔️ Triggers:
* SPY struggles to hold $611.50, leading to a retrace.
* Weak buying pressure at open → potential pullback to $610.50 - $609.50 before bouncing.
* Volume remains low, causing slow grind lower before finding support.
📌 Gap Fill Support Levels:
* $610.50 (key demand zone).
* $609.50 - $608.50 (full gap fill zone, strong buyers expected).
3️⃣ Market Sentiment & Expected Direction
* Options Flow: If call buyers step in early, expect a gap & go move.
* VIX Levels: If VIX remains stable or drops, bullish bias remains strong.
* Fed & News Impact: No major news today, so technicals should dominate price action.
📢 📊 My Bias:
* Stronger Probability: Gap & Go if $611.50 holds.
* If Early Weakness: Look for a gap fill into $610.50-$609.50 before rebounding.
* Overall Sentiment: Bullish, but expect some consolidation before continuation.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.