Key Observations:
1. Significant Downtrend:
• The recent price action shows a notable decline from its highs, suggesting strong selling pressure.
• The price has fallen to a major support zone around $551.42, close to a longer-term uptrend line (green line).
2. Support & Resistance Levels:
• $563.91 – A previous support level turned resistance after the recent decline.
• $551.42 – Currently being tested as a support level.
• $539.44, $518.36, and $510.27 – Potential next support levels if price continues downward.
3. Trendline Test:
• The long-term uptrend line is being tested right now. If it holds, SPY could see a bounce.
• If it breaks below, it might lead to a deeper correction towards $539.44 or lower.
4. Indicators:
• Stochastic RSI (middle panel):
• Currently in oversold territory, suggesting that selling momentum is strong, but a potential bounce could occur.
• MACD (bottom panel):
• The histogram is deeply negative, showing strong downward momentum.
• The MACD lines are still bearish but may start flattening, which could indicate slowing bearish momentum soon.
Prediction for Tomorrow & Near-Term:
• Bullish Scenario:
• If $551.42 and the trendline hold, SPY may attempt a bounce toward $563.91 resistance.
• Confirmation would require bullish momentum on lower timeframes and increased volume.
• Bearish Scenario:
• If SPY breaks below $551.42 and the trendline, expect further downside to $539.44 and possibly $518.36 in the coming days.
• A continued negative MACD and weak Stoch RSI would reinforce this bearish outlook.
Conclusion:
• Critical level to watch: $551.42.
• If SPY closes above it, we could see a short-term rebound.
• If it breaks below, expect more downside pressure toward $539.44 and $518.36.
1. Significant Downtrend:
• The recent price action shows a notable decline from its highs, suggesting strong selling pressure.
• The price has fallen to a major support zone around $551.42, close to a longer-term uptrend line (green line).
2. Support & Resistance Levels:
• $563.91 – A previous support level turned resistance after the recent decline.
• $551.42 – Currently being tested as a support level.
• $539.44, $518.36, and $510.27 – Potential next support levels if price continues downward.
3. Trendline Test:
• The long-term uptrend line is being tested right now. If it holds, SPY could see a bounce.
• If it breaks below, it might lead to a deeper correction towards $539.44 or lower.
4. Indicators:
• Stochastic RSI (middle panel):
• Currently in oversold territory, suggesting that selling momentum is strong, but a potential bounce could occur.
• MACD (bottom panel):
• The histogram is deeply negative, showing strong downward momentum.
• The MACD lines are still bearish but may start flattening, which could indicate slowing bearish momentum soon.
Prediction for Tomorrow & Near-Term:
• Bullish Scenario:
• If $551.42 and the trendline hold, SPY may attempt a bounce toward $563.91 resistance.
• Confirmation would require bullish momentum on lower timeframes and increased volume.
• Bearish Scenario:
• If SPY breaks below $551.42 and the trendline, expect further downside to $539.44 and possibly $518.36 in the coming days.
• A continued negative MACD and weak Stoch RSI would reinforce this bearish outlook.
Conclusion:
• Critical level to watch: $551.42.
• If SPY closes above it, we could see a short-term rebound.
• If it breaks below, expect more downside pressure toward $539.44 and $518.36.
Note
Intraday SPY Analysis (Based on Your Indicators & Chart Data)
This chart provides a shorter-term look at SPY’s price action, pivot points, and momentum indicators. Here’s what I see:
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1. Key Levels & Pivot Points
• Resistance Levels (Upside Targets)
• R1: ~558.56 - 563.42
• R2: ~567.98
• R3: ~577.40 (Unlikely unless a strong rally occurs)
• Support Levels (Downside Risks)
• S1: ~553.89 (Currently testing this level)
• S2: ~549.14 - 548.84 (Next key support)
• S3: ~539.72 - 539.44 (If selling continues)
⸻
2. Price Action & Trend Analysis
• Recent Trend: SPY has been in a clear downtrend over the past several sessions, with price mostly trading below the daily pivot (P) and rejecting resistance levels.
• Current Setup: SPY bounced slightly from S1 (~553.89) but is struggling to reclaim key resistance levels.
• Volume Confirmation:
• Volume appears relatively neutral, with no significant spikes that would indicate strong buying or selling pressure.
• This suggests the market is either consolidating or waiting for a catalyst.
⸻
3. Indicator Analysis
Stochastic RSI (Momentum Indicator - Middle Panel)
• The Stochastic RSI is attempting to cross back up, signaling a potential short-term bounce.
• If it continues upward, SPY could move toward R1 (~558-563) before deciding its next direction.
• If it rolls over, expect a retest of 549.14 or lower.
MACD (Trend & Momentum - Bottom Panel)
• The MACD lines are still bearish but beginning to show signs of flattening.
• A bullish crossover would confirm upside momentum, but for now, the trend remains weak.
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4. Prediction for Tomorrow (March 14, 2025)
Bullish Scenario
• If SPY holds above 553.89 overnight and breaks R1 (~558.56) tomorrow morning, expect a move toward 563.42 - 567.98.
• Catalysts Needed: A gap-up, positive economic data, or strong buying pressure at open.
Bearish Scenario
• If SPY fails to hold 553.89 and breaks below 549.14, expect a move toward S2 (548.84) or S3 (539.44-539.72).
• Catalysts Needed: Weak market sentiment, bad economic data, or futures opening lower.
⸻
Conclusion: How to Trade This Setup?
• Aggressive Bulls: Look for a long entry if SPY holds 553.89 and reclaims 558.56 with a stop below 549.
• Cautious Traders: Wait for confirmation of a trend reversal (Stoch RSI and MACD crossing up).
• Bears: If SPY rejects 558.56-563.42, or breaks below 553.89, a short play toward 549.14
Note
Options Trading Strategy for SPY (March 14, 2025)Based on the technical analysis from your chart, here are potential 0DTE & short-term options trading strategies depending on SPY’s movement tomorrow.
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🟢 Bullish Scenario (SPY Holds 553.89 & Breaks Above 558.56)
• Entry Trigger: SPY reclaims 558.56 and holds above it for at least 5-10 minutes.
• Target 1: 563.42
• Target 2: 567.98
Option Strategies for a Bullish Move
🔹 0DTE (High-Risk, High-Reward Day Trade)
1. Buy SPY 560 Call (Exp. 3/14)
• Entry: If SPY crosses and holds above 558.56
• Exit: Near 563-567 range
• Stop-Loss: If SPY falls below 555
2. Debit Call Spread (Safer Alternative)
• Buy SPY 560 Call (Exp. 3/14)
• Sell SPY 565 Call (Exp. 3/14)
• Lower cost, limited profit, but high probability of success
3. Sell a Bull Put Spread (Credit Strategy)
• Sell SPY 553 Put
• Buy SPY 548 Put
• Profit if SPY stays above 553
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🔴 Bearish Scenario (SPY Rejects 558.56 or Breaks Below 553.89)
• Entry Trigger: SPY rejects 558.56 OR breaks 553.89 & confirms below it
• Target 1: 549.14
• Target 2: 539.72
Option Strategies for a Bearish Move
🔹 0DTE (High-Risk, High-Reward Day Trade)
1. Buy SPY 550 Put (Exp. 3/14)
• Entry: If SPY breaks below 553.89 with strong selling pressure.
• Exit: If SPY hits 549-539.
• Stop-Loss: If SPY reclaims 555.
2. Debit Put Spread (Safer Play)
• Buy SPY 550 Put (Exp. 3/14)
• Sell SPY 545 Put (Exp. 3/14)
• Lower cost, fixed max loss, but profit capped at 545
3. Sell a Bear Call Spread (Credit Strategy)
• Sell SPY 560 Call
• Buy SPY 565 Call
• Profit if SPY stays below 560
⸻
⚖️ Neutral Scenario (SPY Choppy Between 553-558)
• Iron Condor (Best for Low Volatility)
• Sell SPY 560 Call
• Buy SPY 565 Call
• Sell SPY 550 Put
• Buy SPY 545 Put
• Profit if SPY stays between 550-560
⸻
Final Thoughts:
• Best Bullish Trade → Buy SPY 560 Calls if above 558.56.
• Best Bearish Trade → Buy SPY 550 Puts if below 553.89.
• Safer Approach → Use spreads to reduce risk & avoid premium crush.
• Best Neutral Play → Iron Condor if range-bound.
As always, please let me know if you see something I didn't catch.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
As always, please let me know if you see something I didn't catch.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.