SPY trade idea 5:1 ratio
Short = 565
Stop = 570
Profit = 540
(SPY) S&P 500 index rapidly dropped in a week, then bounced in a V shape recovery for 2 weeks, now it could u-turn back down. SPY is back at it's resistance level of it's 2 year trend channel. There's not much upside left this week from the 560 area. However, it could temporarily false breakout. I'm posting this as a short because there's way more downside than upside potential for the next month. Since there has been steady momentum going up from Monday 8/5 bounce off 510 low, this short setup will probably take a few days. It's likely a catalyst related to newsworthy current events (Macroeconomic / Geopolitical) will u-turn the momentum around.
The trajectory of this SPY 2 year trend channel ends 2024 at these levels. High: 590, mid: 570, low: 550. S&P 500 average annual return since 1957 is around 10%. Over the past 10 years SPY annual returns are:
2015 = -0.81%
2016 = 9.64%
2017 = 19.38%
2018 = -6.35%
2019 = 28.79%
2020 = 16.16%
2021 = 27.04%
2022 = -19.48%
2023 = 24.29%
2024 = 17.74% YTD
SPY options data:
8/23/24 expiry
Put Volume Total 227,406
Call Volume Total 194,390
Put/Call Volume Ratio 1.17
Put Open Interest Total 453,568
Call Open Interest Total 231,880
Put/Call Open Interest Ratio 1.96
8/30/24 expiry
Put Volume Total 106,190
Call Volume Total 71,114
Put/Call Volume Ratio 1.49
Put Open Interest Total 1,325,995
Call Open Interest Total 400,252
Put/Call Open Interest Ratio 3.31
9/6/24 expiry
Put Volume Total 34,413
Call Volume Total 27,127
Put/Call Volume Ratio 1.27
Put Open Interest Total 409,413
Call Open Interest Total 82,889
Put/Call Open Interest Ratio 4.94
9/13/24 expiry
Put Volume Total 26,054
Call Volume Total 32,626
Put/Call Volume Ratio 0.80
Put Open Interest Total 790,615
Call Open Interest Total 72,179
Put/Call Open Interest Ratio 10.95
9/20/24 expiry
Put Volume Total 240,533
Call Volume Total 90,520
Put/Call Volume Ratio 2.66
Put Open Interest Total 2,778,151
Call Open Interest Total 878,237
Put/Call Open Interest Ratio 3.16
Short = 565
Stop = 570
Profit = 540
(SPY) S&P 500 index rapidly dropped in a week, then bounced in a V shape recovery for 2 weeks, now it could u-turn back down. SPY is back at it's resistance level of it's 2 year trend channel. There's not much upside left this week from the 560 area. However, it could temporarily false breakout. I'm posting this as a short because there's way more downside than upside potential for the next month. Since there has been steady momentum going up from Monday 8/5 bounce off 510 low, this short setup will probably take a few days. It's likely a catalyst related to newsworthy current events (Macroeconomic / Geopolitical) will u-turn the momentum around.
The trajectory of this SPY 2 year trend channel ends 2024 at these levels. High: 590, mid: 570, low: 550. S&P 500 average annual return since 1957 is around 10%. Over the past 10 years SPY annual returns are:
2015 = -0.81%
2016 = 9.64%
2017 = 19.38%
2018 = -6.35%
2019 = 28.79%
2020 = 16.16%
2021 = 27.04%
2022 = -19.48%
2023 = 24.29%
2024 = 17.74% YTD
SPY options data:
8/23/24 expiry
Put Volume Total 227,406
Call Volume Total 194,390
Put/Call Volume Ratio 1.17
Put Open Interest Total 453,568
Call Open Interest Total 231,880
Put/Call Open Interest Ratio 1.96
8/30/24 expiry
Put Volume Total 106,190
Call Volume Total 71,114
Put/Call Volume Ratio 1.49
Put Open Interest Total 1,325,995
Call Open Interest Total 400,252
Put/Call Open Interest Ratio 3.31
9/6/24 expiry
Put Volume Total 34,413
Call Volume Total 27,127
Put/Call Volume Ratio 1.27
Put Open Interest Total 409,413
Call Open Interest Total 82,889
Put/Call Open Interest Ratio 4.94
9/13/24 expiry
Put Volume Total 26,054
Call Volume Total 32,626
Put/Call Volume Ratio 0.80
Put Open Interest Total 790,615
Call Open Interest Total 72,179
Put/Call Open Interest Ratio 10.95
9/20/24 expiry
Put Volume Total 240,533
Call Volume Total 90,520
Put/Call Volume Ratio 2.66
Put Open Interest Total 2,778,151
Call Open Interest Total 878,237
Put/Call Open Interest Ratio 3.16
Trade active
start legging in to puts a few each day from 560Note
8/30/24 expiry options data:Put Volume Total 124,642
Call Volume Total 97,112
Put/Call Volume Ratio 1.28
Put Open Interest Total 1,373,258
Call Open Interest Total 410,260
Put/Call Open Interest Ratio 3.35
Note
It looks like today or tomorrow SPY will hit a new all time high.
Trading indicators:
tradingview.com/u/Options360/
tradingview.com/u/Options360/
Disclaimer
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Trading indicators:
tradingview.com/u/Options360/
tradingview.com/u/Options360/
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.