Who's more worried?
Updated
No emotions...no bias. If you choose a side to ride or die at a time like this, you're likely to get burned. The upper side of this mega phone pattern (red line) has been tested 5 times now, with the last 3 touches being after higher lows. 3 Rate cuts and stop. Last time that happened...the 90's, boom went the market. Its set to do that again if the upper side of this trendline is broken. 2 years of consolidation, the move will be impulsive. Trump will do anything to keep the economy up during his election year...That's a lot of reasons to be bullish. But....
Then again, who's to say the Fed actually stops at 3 rate cuts? Who's to say China or Trump doesn't walk away from the trade table again? Or the Fed doing 120BN in repo operations is a bullish sign at all. Or the yield curve being inverted means no recession. Or the fact that we are seeing record low weekly volumes in the month of October on this push higher and bearish divergences out the rear end are a good thing??
Point in case, if you are a perma bull or bear right now, you are asking for pain. Right now the market sits right under the upper red trendline, a perfect time to go short. Set the stop/loss on a break and hold of the trendline. Volume will be key, a no volume breakout, could be a fake out. Fact of the matter is, most reasons to be bullish are fluff, and reasons to be bearish are facts. I'm bearish, but I don't plan on questioning the markets ability to get euphoric and parabolic towards the upside if a break happens.
Then again, who's to say the Fed actually stops at 3 rate cuts? Who's to say China or Trump doesn't walk away from the trade table again? Or the Fed doing 120BN in repo operations is a bullish sign at all. Or the yield curve being inverted means no recession. Or the fact that we are seeing record low weekly volumes in the month of October on this push higher and bearish divergences out the rear end are a good thing??
Point in case, if you are a perma bull or bear right now, you are asking for pain. Right now the market sits right under the upper red trendline, a perfect time to go short. Set the stop/loss on a break and hold of the trendline. Volume will be key, a no volume breakout, could be a fake out. Fact of the matter is, most reasons to be bullish are fluff, and reasons to be bearish are facts. I'm bearish, but I don't plan on questioning the markets ability to get euphoric and parabolic towards the upside if a break happens.
Note
Crazy or a coincidence?
The 2008 highs, .618 retracement of the 09 lows to 19' highs, and the bottoms side of the megaphone trendline all create a major point of confluence in February 2022?
Note
***NOTE: Kept the white trendline in as a potential resistance area if the market were to break to the upside.Note
Just like everyone other key level over the past few months, it was broken via a gap up. The fed, the president, they aren't stupid. It's no coincidence every time there is a key level overhead, that they bust out the "fantastic" trade news or something else that can gap it up.
Still long term bearish, but short term is looking very bullish if the markets can hold above the upper side of this megaphone for a few days. Don't be surprised if the market fades next week, comes close to breaking back down below it, and boom! Trade talks are going even better than better with China!
I got a feeling this will look like early 2018. Tons of people shorting this upper trendline, if the move higher validates, expect a pretty nice sized short squeeze. Not to mention everyone jumping long on the break as well. I really don't see any form of resistance until 312 or so.
I can't stress enough though, long above the red trendline, short below it, and always do your own analysis before making a move!
Note
Gonna throw a chart of Apple in here. When the biggest stock in the market continues trucking higher, even when the market is selling off, as Apple has over the past couple weeks. There isn't much fear in the markets. It may be approaching some heavy resistance here. Both previous times it tapped this trendline, it sold off heavily. The market isn't going anywhere without Apple.
Watch Apple carefully next week.
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Clean the chart up a little bit:
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