Completion of V phase in a W shaped recovery-Leg down imminent
Updated
I bought some SPXS 3x short this AM with the intent to play the technical rejection and flip it.
I thought we would continue to see an artificial rally to test FIB 0.5 (279.50 SPY)
The fact that we didn't have enough steam to reach 279 tells me people aren't as bullish as the media is portraying. Plus we saw double retest and rejection this morning.
First, we sold off of 275.50 and then we sold off a lower resistance of 273, and we sold off hard.
Therefore, I made some adjustments to my map.
275.50 was the top in the "V" phase of the "W" shaped recovery. I think we see a retest of a "higher low" this time which is 230 SPY.
Look at that selling wick the second the Fed tried raising the imaginary bid/ask line (3:50-4:00pm). They pumped us up to 270 SPY. There were no takers at that level, only sellers. Which is why you saw an instant decline of 1.8%...I got to pocket the arbitrage :) Also, massive selling volume from big money into the close. All in all, I am bearish into easter. And remember Friday the market is closed, I think people are not going to hold through the holiday weekend.
The first stop is 246-247 and the bottom of the 2nd "V" in the "W" will be 230.
I thought we would continue to see an artificial rally to test FIB 0.5 (279.50 SPY)
The fact that we didn't have enough steam to reach 279 tells me people aren't as bullish as the media is portraying. Plus we saw double retest and rejection this morning.
First, we sold off of 275.50 and then we sold off a lower resistance of 273, and we sold off hard.
Therefore, I made some adjustments to my map.
275.50 was the top in the "V" phase of the "W" shaped recovery. I think we see a retest of a "higher low" this time which is 230 SPY.
Look at that selling wick the second the Fed tried raising the imaginary bid/ask line (3:50-4:00pm). They pumped us up to 270 SPY. There were no takers at that level, only sellers. Which is why you saw an instant decline of 1.8%...I got to pocket the arbitrage :) Also, massive selling volume from big money into the close. All in all, I am bearish into easter. And remember Friday the market is closed, I think people are not going to hold through the holiday weekend.
The first stop is 246-247 and the bottom of the 2nd "V" in the "W" will be 230.
Note
I may have been a little overly pessimistic. I think we see a leg down to 256 regardless. Followed by another rally into Easter and after. And then the real bear market begins when bad numbers start surprising people. I'm paralleling this sequence to Feb 20-March 9 as you see
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