The Bears have one chance before 430
Updated
Well the market surprised me... The "dumb" money actually pushed us up to our secondary peak that we had in august and formed an indecision candle. The Bulls will want to take us to 430 and are FOMOing in at full pace.
Smart money has been sitting on the sidelines waiting for a dip (they were waiting even at the 400 level).
I am a stubborn bear so I think there may be a chance for a reversal still. What we are looking for is a pre-market sell off that opens the market at around 412 (We must be under 412.50) We then need to sell off during the day and close below 408.
If this happens we will have an Evening Star pattern. What this pattern shows is that the bulls have used up their buying power and profit taking was not met by demand. If this occurs we can begin a reversal as bulls trim their positions and bears hammer it down.
If we open above 413 and stay above 413 It will represent accumulation and that will mean we probably go to 430.
I still have 402 Puts expiring on 2/10 so hopefully for me we can get that pattern and have a good sell off next week. An Evening Star into a weekend is a great opportunity for the market to calm down and wake up to the uncertain reality that is 2023. Many tech stocks are up 100% or more in just the last month so I would expect profit taking.
I will not be adding any new short position unless we have the gap down opening and close under 408.
Good luck bears.
Congrats bulls.
Smart money has been sitting on the sidelines waiting for a dip (they were waiting even at the 400 level).
I am a stubborn bear so I think there may be a chance for a reversal still. What we are looking for is a pre-market sell off that opens the market at around 412 (We must be under 412.50) We then need to sell off during the day and close below 408.
If this happens we will have an Evening Star pattern. What this pattern shows is that the bulls have used up their buying power and profit taking was not met by demand. If this occurs we can begin a reversal as bulls trim their positions and bears hammer it down.
If we open above 413 and stay above 413 It will represent accumulation and that will mean we probably go to 430.
I still have 402 Puts expiring on 2/10 so hopefully for me we can get that pattern and have a good sell off next week. An Evening Star into a weekend is a great opportunity for the market to calm down and wake up to the uncertain reality that is 2023. Many tech stocks are up 100% or more in just the last month so I would expect profit taking.
I will not be adding any new short position unless we have the gap down opening and close under 408.
Good luck bears.
Congrats bulls.
Note
Today was not really what either side of the trade was looking for. The bears had the pre-market open that they wanted with the gap down but we did not set up the island reversal as bulls were still eager to buy it back up to 416.Profit taking did come in as expected and sent it back down to 412 but we did not go below the breakout point of 408 (Center of Wednesdays candle)
I would expect a pullback next week but based on today I can't see it breaking 400
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