📉 The Road Below $500? Here's the Case.
While bulls are still buying dips, several key signals suggest a deeper correction may be brewing — possibly below the critical $500 psychological support zone in the coming weeks.
Technical Breakdown
Rising Wedge Breakdown on the 4H and Daily charts has triggered.
Diverging RSI — lower highs on RSI while price pushed higher = bearish divergence.
MACD Bearish Crossover confirmed on both 1D and 4H = momentum shift.
Volume Analysis shows increased selling on red candles = institutional distribution.
SMA50 Breach likely — and SMA200 sits just under $500, a magnet if fear accelerates.
🧠 Market Sentiment
Put/Call Ratio has spiked to 1.20+, suggesting rising hedging activity.
CNN Fear & Greed Index is shifting toward Fear.
Social media chatter (Twitter/X & Reddit) has turned skeptical — fewer breakout calls, more risk-off talk.
📰 Macro Headlines Fuel the Case
Powell’s latest "higher for longer" interest rate remarks = bearish for growth names.
Earnings misses from key megacaps (GOOGL, AAPL) = cracks in the leaders.
Geopolitical tension in the Middle East and China trade fears = added volatility.
Key Levels to Watch:
$507–$510 = current distribution zone (supply).
$500 = major psychological & technical level.
$491 = unfilled liquidity gap (volume imbalance) — very likely magnet.
Final Thought:
This isn't fear — it's data-backed caution. Until we reclaim $510 with volume and conviction, a retest of $500 and possibly a sweep below is the more probable path.
Stay smart. Stay hedged. As Always Safe Trades I will guide the way.
While bulls are still buying dips, several key signals suggest a deeper correction may be brewing — possibly below the critical $500 psychological support zone in the coming weeks.
Technical Breakdown
Rising Wedge Breakdown on the 4H and Daily charts has triggered.
Diverging RSI — lower highs on RSI while price pushed higher = bearish divergence.
MACD Bearish Crossover confirmed on both 1D and 4H = momentum shift.
Volume Analysis shows increased selling on red candles = institutional distribution.
SMA50 Breach likely — and SMA200 sits just under $500, a magnet if fear accelerates.
🧠 Market Sentiment
Put/Call Ratio has spiked to 1.20+, suggesting rising hedging activity.
CNN Fear & Greed Index is shifting toward Fear.
Social media chatter (Twitter/X & Reddit) has turned skeptical — fewer breakout calls, more risk-off talk.
📰 Macro Headlines Fuel the Case
Powell’s latest "higher for longer" interest rate remarks = bearish for growth names.
Earnings misses from key megacaps (GOOGL, AAPL) = cracks in the leaders.
Geopolitical tension in the Middle East and China trade fears = added volatility.
Key Levels to Watch:
$507–$510 = current distribution zone (supply).
$500 = major psychological & technical level.
$491 = unfilled liquidity gap (volume imbalance) — very likely magnet.
Final Thought:
This isn't fear — it's data-backed caution. Until we reclaim $510 with volume and conviction, a retest of $500 and possibly a sweep below is the more probable path.
Stay smart. Stay hedged. As Always Safe Trades I will guide the way.
Trade active
Market Overview: April 22, 2025SPY Closing Price: $524.32, up 1.8% on the day
S&P 500 Index: 5,322.25, recovering from prior losses
Dow Jones Industrial Average: 39,344.27, up 2.7%
Nasdaq Composite: 18,450.50, up nearly 3%
The market rebounded following a steep sell-off, driven by optimism over potential easing of trade tensions between the U.S. and China. U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent expressed confidence in reaching a tariff agreement, describing the current trade tensions as "unsustainable"
Technical Indicators
RSI (14): 52.5 – Neutral
MACD (12,26): -1.52 – Sell
ADX (14): 37.0 – Indicates a strong trend
Williams %R: -18.2 – Overbought
Stochastic RSI (14): 88.9 – Overbought
Despite the day's gains, several indicators suggest caution. The MACD remains in bearish territory, and overbought conditions in oscillators like the Stochastic RSI and Williams %R hint at potential short-term pullbacks
News Sentiment
Trade Policy Uncertainty: President Trump's recent tariff announcements have introduced significant volatility. The implementation of broad tariffs has led to global market disruptions, with the S&P 500 experiencing a substantial decline earlier in the month .
Federal Reserve Tensions: President Trump's public criticism of Fed Chair Jerome Powell, labeling him a "major loser," has raised concerns about the independence of the Federal Reserve and added to market instability
Arguments for Potential Further Downside
Technical Resistance Levels: SPY faces resistance near the $530–$535 range. Failure to break above this zone could lead to a retest of recent lows.
Overbought Conditions: Short-term indicators suggest the market may be overextended, increasing the likelihood of a pullback.
Economic Indicators: The IMF has downgraded global economic forecasts, and ongoing trade tensions could further dampen growth prospects .
Market Breadth: Despite the rebound, market participation remains narrow, with gains concentrated in a few sectors.
Conclusion
While the market showed resilience on April 22, underlying technical and fundamental factors warrant caution. Investors should monitor key resistance levels and stay informed on geopolitical developments that could impact market dynamics. $500 INCOMMING NOT FINANCIAL ADVISE BUT ITS WHAT ALL THE COOL KIDS ARE DOING SHORTING
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*Institutional Grade Bots & Quantum Trading Bots
*Alphapulse Luxury Suite Indicators
*Breakout Alerts *Option Plays Swing & *Day Trading Signals
*Personal Stock Plays
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Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.