SPDR S&P 500 ETF TRUSTUpdated SPY GEX Analysis and Option Trading Suggestions
Key Observations from GEX Chart
1. Call Resistance:
* $610 is the key resistance level, marked by the highest positive gamma exposure, likely acting as a ceiling for SPY.
* Additional resistance is present at $603.
2. Put Support:
* $595 serves as critical support, aligning with the highest negative gamma exposure.
* Below this, $580 is the next major support zone, with high put concentration.
3. Gamma Pivot Zone:
* $600 is the gamma pivot point. Holding above this level signals bullish momentum, while a rejection could push SPY lower.
4. IVR (Implied Volatility Rank):
* IVR at 24.6, indicating moderate implied volatility, making options relatively affordable for trading.
5. Implied Volatility (IVx):
* IVx at 19.2, reflecting a slight uptick in implied volatility (+1.47%).
Option Trading Suggestions
1. Bullish Scenario:
* If SPY sustains above $603:
* Trade Idea: Buy a Call Debit Spread.
* Strike 1: $605 (Buy Call)
* Strike 2: $610 (Sell Call)
* Expiry: 2 weeks out.
* Reasoning: Capitalizes on potential movement towards the key resistance at $610.
2. Bearish Scenario:
* If SPY breaks below $595:
* Trade Idea: Buy a Put Debit Spread.
* Strike 1: $595 (Buy Put)
* Strike 2: $580 (Sell Put)
* Expiry: 2-3 weeks out.
* Reasoning: Targets downside momentum towards the $580 support zone.
3. Neutral Strategy:
* For consolidation between $595 and $610:
* Trade Idea: Sell an Iron Condor.
* Sell Put: $595
* Buy Put: $580
* Sell Call: $610
* Buy Call: $620
* Reasoning: Profits from time decay within the identified range with limited risk.
Thoughts and Insights
* Critical Levels:
* Support: $595, $580
* Resistance: $603, $610
* Momentum Analysis: Holding above $600 with increasing volume confirms bullish sentiment, while breaking below $595 signals bearish pressure.
* Volatility Context: Low IVR suggests initiating directional trades or neutral strategies with moderate premium costs.
Reminder:
GEX data updates every 15 minutes. Always refer to real-time data to adjust trading strategies accordingly.
Disclaimer:
This analysis is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Always perform your own research and manage risk effectively when trading.
1. Call Resistance:
* $610 is the key resistance level, marked by the highest positive gamma exposure, likely acting as a ceiling for SPY.
* Additional resistance is present at $603.
2. Put Support:
* $595 serves as critical support, aligning with the highest negative gamma exposure.
* Below this, $580 is the next major support zone, with high put concentration.
3. Gamma Pivot Zone:
* $600 is the gamma pivot point. Holding above this level signals bullish momentum, while a rejection could push SPY lower.
4. IVR (Implied Volatility Rank):
* IVR at 24.6, indicating moderate implied volatility, making options relatively affordable for trading.
5. Implied Volatility (IVx):
* IVx at 19.2, reflecting a slight uptick in implied volatility (+1.47%).
Option Trading Suggestions
1. Bullish Scenario:
* If SPY sustains above $603:
* Trade Idea: Buy a Call Debit Spread.
* Strike 1: $605 (Buy Call)
* Strike 2: $610 (Sell Call)
* Expiry: 2 weeks out.
* Reasoning: Capitalizes on potential movement towards the key resistance at $610.
2. Bearish Scenario:
* If SPY breaks below $595:
* Trade Idea: Buy a Put Debit Spread.
* Strike 1: $595 (Buy Put)
* Strike 2: $580 (Sell Put)
* Expiry: 2-3 weeks out.
* Reasoning: Targets downside momentum towards the $580 support zone.
3. Neutral Strategy:
* For consolidation between $595 and $610:
* Trade Idea: Sell an Iron Condor.
* Sell Put: $595
* Buy Put: $580
* Sell Call: $610
* Buy Call: $620
* Reasoning: Profits from time decay within the identified range with limited risk.
Thoughts and Insights
* Critical Levels:
* Support: $595, $580
* Resistance: $603, $610
* Momentum Analysis: Holding above $600 with increasing volume confirms bullish sentiment, while breaking below $595 signals bearish pressure.
* Volatility Context: Low IVR suggests initiating directional trades or neutral strategies with moderate premium costs.
Reminder:
GEX data updates every 15 minutes. Always refer to real-time data to adjust trading strategies accordingly.
Disclaimer:
This analysis is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Always perform your own research and manage risk effectively when trading.
Trade active
my thoughts:
1. Trend Bias: The downward trendline signals a clear bearish sentiment from previous sessions. However, the current consolidation near $597 suggests indecision. This makes the $598 level crucial for scalping, as it would confirm a short-term bullish breakout if breached.
2. GEX Sentiment: The dominance of puts at 80.2% and the highest negative GEX zone at $595 align with a potential bearish bias. If $595 breaks, it could trigger a gamma squeeze lower toward $590 or below. On the flip side, a bounce above $598 could lead to a short-term relief rally.
3. Scalping Potential:
* Bullish Setup: A break above $598 could have limited upside due to resistance at $602, making quick scalps preferable.
* Bearish Setup: The bearish scenario has more room for movement, especially if $595 breaks, as there's less structural support down to $590.
4. Volume Analysis: The declining volume during consolidation suggests a potential volatility spike once the price moves decisively. This reinforces the importance of waiting for confirmation before entering trades.
5. Risk Management: Tight stop-losses are critical given SPY’s volatility on a 1-minute timeframe. Both bullish and bearish scenarios should aim for small, consistent profits rather than trying to catch large moves.
Overall Thoughts:
The setup leans slightly bearish due to trend and sentiment indicators. However, the $598 level provides a key pivot point for short-term momentum. I'd focus on volume and momentum confirmation at these levels and avoid preempting a move without clear triggers. Patience and discipline will be crucial today, especially with limited trades available in your strategy.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.