Signs of Cracking?

Updated

It's often looked at as a bearish signal when pre market highs cannot be broken during regular trading hours. Above we have marked off every time the SPY has gapped higher (from the previous days close) TWO consecutive days in a row in pre-market, but then failed to break those highs during regular trading hours.

It's a rare occurrence that is set to occur today, pending a crazy buy up in the last 30 minutes of trading. Just an interesting chart I thought I'd share none the less!

Note

Updated to times it's occurred 3 consecutive days.....
Literally a penny away from touching and potentially breaking through pre-market highs today...

It's never happened 4 days in a row as far back as I can see on the 4 hour chart (Year n half-ish)

Between "not qe" and the president, you can be sure this thing will be pumped higher again tomorrow. Big move is brewing up for sure....which direction?

Note

And chart for our long term log lovers....

All of a sudden the 70's comparisons make sense..... Also proof of how longer term trends can break but not fall to pieces and re-establish the trend broken... None the less...its a long term chart that people will chart 11 different ways, so take it as a grain of salt....More or less just a great explanation as to why "uncharacteristic" things are occurring in the market right now...

Note

For example....this is probably more logical:

But when you put multiple charts together...and start finding similar trends in each of them....that just means more and more people are "seeing the same thing". March 2021 would test the lower side of this trendline and the 00/08' highs. The 30's/40's double top was never retest years later though, so it'd be reckless to assume this time it should.

Note

Trade talks are starting to get interesting. The market can go up on "optimism" forever, but how much more optimism can be given? After both sides announcing they will remove tariffs in phases, whats left to promise?

Does anyone really think China is going to just give in to every U.S. demand? What if the roles were reversed right now? I think people forget about one very key factor in all this trade "optimism". Both sides cash in from each others markets prospering. China doesn't want the U.S. economy to crash anymore than the U.S. does. They'll help pump it as long as they can aswell, without making a deal. The deal was "supposed to" be signed a week ago....then this week...then next....now December.

China only has to stretch this puppy out for one more year. If they agree to a phase one deal that does not hurt them in any way shape or form, then it makes Trump look weak and desperate. Last thing you want going into an election year..

Not only does it make Trump look weak, but there is no way all this "optimism" is going to reflect in a deal that is in phase one out of potentially three phases. If and when a deal is made, watch the blow-off top and reversal once people realize absolutely nothing was accomplished that mattered. Think about it....

JTI96

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