Updated SPY Weekly Forecast Range (as of $563)
Scenario Projected Close Range Probability
Bull Case $570 – $577 40%
Base Case $558 – $566 45%
Bear Case $545 – $555 15%
🔼 Bull Case Summary ($570–$577)
Conditions:
CPI data comes in cool (Thursday)
PLTR, AMD, DIS all beat and guide higher
Fed speakers lean dovish
Mega caps like NVDA & MSFT fuel rotation higher
SPY clears the psychological $565 resistance
Fuel:
Short gamma squeeze above $565
Call wall shift to $570/$575
Sector momentum in tech, financials, and discretionary
⚖️ Base Case Summary ($558–$566)
Conditions:
CPI is in-line
Earnings are mixed (1 or 2 misses)
Market digests prior rally, stays elevated
No breakout — just holding range
Behavior:
SPY consolidates around 8-day EMA and VWAP
Buyers hesitate near $565–$567
Light-volume pullbacks to $560 or $558 get bought
🔻 Bear Case Summary ($545–$555)
Conditions:
CPI comes in hot → rate cut expectations fall
Key earnings disappoint (PLTR, AMD, DIS miss or lower guide)
Yields spike, market pulls back fast
SPY loses 8-day EMA, dips toward 21-day EMA near $548
Fuel:
IV spike → volatility unwind
Bond market pressure → liquidity stress
Rotation into defensive sectors (XLU, XLP)
🔍 Supporting Indicators (Real-Time Drivers to Watch):
CPI – Thursday, May 9
10-Year Yield reaction post-CPI
Earnings releases (especially PLTR Monday + AMD Tuesday)
Options flow around $565, $570 strikes
Volatility Index (VIX): Holding under 14 = bullish, over 15 = caution
Scenario Projected Close Range Probability
Bull Case $570 – $577 40%
Base Case $558 – $566 45%
Bear Case $545 – $555 15%
🔼 Bull Case Summary ($570–$577)
Conditions:
CPI data comes in cool (Thursday)
PLTR, AMD, DIS all beat and guide higher
Fed speakers lean dovish
Mega caps like NVDA & MSFT fuel rotation higher
SPY clears the psychological $565 resistance
Fuel:
Short gamma squeeze above $565
Call wall shift to $570/$575
Sector momentum in tech, financials, and discretionary
⚖️ Base Case Summary ($558–$566)
Conditions:
CPI is in-line
Earnings are mixed (1 or 2 misses)
Market digests prior rally, stays elevated
No breakout — just holding range
Behavior:
SPY consolidates around 8-day EMA and VWAP
Buyers hesitate near $565–$567
Light-volume pullbacks to $560 or $558 get bought
🔻 Bear Case Summary ($545–$555)
Conditions:
CPI comes in hot → rate cut expectations fall
Key earnings disappoint (PLTR, AMD, DIS miss or lower guide)
Yields spike, market pulls back fast
SPY loses 8-day EMA, dips toward 21-day EMA near $548
Fuel:
IV spike → volatility unwind
Bond market pressure → liquidity stress
Rotation into defensive sectors (XLU, XLP)
🔍 Supporting Indicators (Real-Time Drivers to Watch):
CPI – Thursday, May 9
10-Year Yield reaction post-CPI
Earnings releases (especially PLTR Monday + AMD Tuesday)
Options flow around $565, $570 strikes
Volatility Index (VIX): Holding under 14 = bullish, over 15 = caution
Trade active
Spy is Holding Strong!!!! Im Still Bearish But My AlphaPulse System is Going Against my Thesis and is Very Bullish Lol📈 AlphaPulse Multi-Timeframe Forecast:
SPY📍 Current Price: $563.51
🔍 Active Patterns: Fair Value Gap, True S/R Zone, VWAP Reclaim
🌐 Market Structure:
• Primary Trend: Mixed/Slightly Bearish
• Trading Bias: Bullish (30.5% confidence)
• Ideal Timeframe: daily (Strength: 4)
🎯 Bullish Price Targets:
• Conservative: $584.17 (+3.67%)
• Primary Target: $604.83 (+7.33%)
• Aggressive: $625.49 (+11.00%)
• Expected Duration: 5-10 days
📊 Technical Position:
• Weekly: Consolidation
• Daily: Bearish Consolidation
• Intraday: Neutral
🔑 Key Levels:
• Strong Support: $558.03
• Strong Resistance: $567.42
• Risk/Reward Ratio: 1:0.7
📈 Current Market Action:
• Weekly: Strong Downward Movement (-5.2%)
• Daily: Strong Upward Movement (+11.7%)
• 5min: Strong Upward Movement (+11.7%)
🧠 Historical Pattern Match:
• Similar to pattern from 2025-05-05
• Matching patterns: True S/R Zone, Fair Value Gap, Overbought Channel Position, VWAP Reclaim
⚠️ Signal strength: 30.5% - 1 historical patterns analyzed
As Always Safe Trades I will be Updating the week
Note
Fomc Today Are You Bullish Or Bearish📈 AlphaPulse Multi-Timeframe Forecast:
SPY📍 Current Price: $559.65
🔍 Active Patterns: Fair Value Gap, True S/R Zone, VWAP Rejection
🌐 Market Structure:
• Primary Trend: Mixed/Slightly Bearish
• Trading Bias: Bullish (29.3% confidence)
• Ideal Timeframe: daily (Strength: 4)
🎯 Bullish Price Targets:
• Conservative: $578.50 (+3.37%)
• Primary Target: $597.35 (+6.74%)
• Aggressive: $616.20 (+10.11%)
• Expected Duration: 5-10 days
📊 Technical Position:
• Weekly: Consolidation
• Daily: Bearish Consolidation
• Intraday: Range Bound
🔑 Key Levels:
• Strong Support: $558.03
• Strong Resistance: $563.91
• Risk/Reward Ratio: 1:2.5
📈 Current Market Action:
• Weekly: Strong Downward Movement (-4.9%)
• Daily: Strong Upward Movement (+2.0%)
• 5min: Strong Upward Movement (+2.0%)
🧠 Historical Pattern Match:
• Similar to pattern from 2025-05-05
• Matching patterns: True S/R Zone
⚠️ Signal strength: 29.3% - 2 historical patterns analyzed
Note
Spy Is holding Srong By The WayTrade closed: target reached
YOLO NOT FINANCIAL ADVICE
SPY | CALL | Strike: 592.0 | Exp: 2025-05-15
Cost: $0.15
FREE Patreon Access
AlphaPulse Luxury Suite Indicators
Quantum Day & Swing Trading Assistant Bots
Coaching, Breakouts
Live Trading Signals, Options, Live Charts
Chart Analytics,
Stock & Crypto Chat
patreon.com/JoeWtrades/redeem/BFC08
AlphaPulse Luxury Suite Indicators
Quantum Day & Swing Trading Assistant Bots
Coaching, Breakouts
Live Trading Signals, Options, Live Charts
Chart Analytics,
Stock & Crypto Chat
patreon.com/JoeWtrades/redeem/BFC08
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
FREE Patreon Access
AlphaPulse Luxury Suite Indicators
Quantum Day & Swing Trading Assistant Bots
Coaching, Breakouts
Live Trading Signals, Options, Live Charts
Chart Analytics,
Stock & Crypto Chat
patreon.com/JoeWtrades/redeem/BFC08
AlphaPulse Luxury Suite Indicators
Quantum Day & Swing Trading Assistant Bots
Coaching, Breakouts
Live Trading Signals, Options, Live Charts
Chart Analytics,
Stock & Crypto Chat
patreon.com/JoeWtrades/redeem/BFC08
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.