➤ The S&P500 equity index is holding above the key support level at 390/3900. A confident break below will result in a Change of Character (CHoCH) in the uptrend since the Oct low.
➤ A CHoCH results in a significant pause in the uptrend or a reversal of the trend.
➤ By holding above the support level, there would not be a CHoCH. Hence the bias is for continued upside.
➤ Inflation data on 13th and the Fed interest rate decision on 14th Dec are clear catalysts for price movement.
➤ I currently hold a -17% short exposure. The maximum portfolio exposure is +/- 200% on capital, the level of highest conviction.
➤ Conclusion: Price is set-up perfectly for a binary outcome. I don't want to be heavily involved here.
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