1. Market Overview
* Current Price: $560.34 (Pre-market)
* Max Pain Level: $580 (Potential magnet, but unlikely today)
* Gamma Exposure: -86.8% Puts → Market makers will sell into weakness and buy into strength
* Major Support Zones:
* $560.20 → Highest negative NetGEX Put Support
* $555 → 3rd Put Wall (-71.85%)
* $550 → 2nd Put Wall (-88.58%)
* Major Resistance Zones:
* $570 → 10.85% Call Resistance
* $573-$575 → 2nd Call Wall (9.91%)
* $580 → 3rd Call Wall (9.3%)
2. Expected Market Behavior
* Bearish bias in the morning due to BOS (Break of Structure)
* Key Decision Area: $560
* If $560 holds, expect a bounce toward $565-$570
* If $560 breaks, expect a dump to $555-$550
* GEX Suggests Market Makers Will Sell Into Weakness:
* If SPY drops, expect acceleration downward
* If SPY spikes up, market makers will fade the move
3. Scalping Playbook
Scenario 1: Bearish Breakdown (Most Likely)
📉 If SPY loses $560.20 with strong selling volume → Short opportunity
* Entry: Below $560 with confirmation
* Target 1: $555
* Target 2: $550 (if heavy selling continues)
* Stop Loss: Above $562
✅ Confirmation Signs:
* Strong volume on breakdown
* Stochastic & MACD trending lower
* SPY fails to reclaim $560 after testing
Scenario 2: Bullish Reversal (Less Likely but Possible)
📈 If SPY holds $560 support and reverses → Long opportunity
* Entry: Above $562 with strong buying pressure
* Target 1: $565 (gap fill)
* Target 2: $570 (call resistance)
* Stop Loss: Below $560
✅ Confirmation Signs:
* Buyers stepping in at $560
* Bullish divergence in Stochastic/MACD
* Break of lower highs on smaller timeframes
4. Key Indicators to Watch
* VWAP: If SPY trades below VWAP, bias remains bearish.
* 9 EMA & 21 EMA: If 9 EMA crosses below 21 EMA, trend confirms down.
* Options Flow: Watch for large put selling or call buying for a shift.
5. Risk Management
* Take profits quickly! Market is volatile.
* If SPY is choppy → Wait for clear breaks above/below key levels.
* Avoid counter-trend scalps unless you see strong divergences.
6. Summary
* Bias: Bearish below $560, bullish only if reclaiming $562.
* Bearish Setup: Breakdown below $560 → Target $555-$550
* Bullish Setup: Bounce off $560 → Target $565-$570
🚀 Game Plan: Watch SPY’s reaction at $560. If it holds, play the bounce. If it breaks, short to $555-$550. Stay nimble and manage risk tightly.
Let me know if you need real-time updates as market opens! 🔥
* Current Price: $560.34 (Pre-market)
* Max Pain Level: $580 (Potential magnet, but unlikely today)
* Gamma Exposure: -86.8% Puts → Market makers will sell into weakness and buy into strength
* Major Support Zones:
* $560.20 → Highest negative NetGEX Put Support
* $555 → 3rd Put Wall (-71.85%)
* $550 → 2nd Put Wall (-88.58%)
* Major Resistance Zones:
* $570 → 10.85% Call Resistance
* $573-$575 → 2nd Call Wall (9.91%)
* $580 → 3rd Call Wall (9.3%)
2. Expected Market Behavior
* Bearish bias in the morning due to BOS (Break of Structure)
* Key Decision Area: $560
* If $560 holds, expect a bounce toward $565-$570
* If $560 breaks, expect a dump to $555-$550
* GEX Suggests Market Makers Will Sell Into Weakness:
* If SPY drops, expect acceleration downward
* If SPY spikes up, market makers will fade the move
3. Scalping Playbook
Scenario 1: Bearish Breakdown (Most Likely)
📉 If SPY loses $560.20 with strong selling volume → Short opportunity
* Entry: Below $560 with confirmation
* Target 1: $555
* Target 2: $550 (if heavy selling continues)
* Stop Loss: Above $562
✅ Confirmation Signs:
* Strong volume on breakdown
* Stochastic & MACD trending lower
* SPY fails to reclaim $560 after testing
Scenario 2: Bullish Reversal (Less Likely but Possible)
📈 If SPY holds $560 support and reverses → Long opportunity
* Entry: Above $562 with strong buying pressure
* Target 1: $565 (gap fill)
* Target 2: $570 (call resistance)
* Stop Loss: Below $560
✅ Confirmation Signs:
* Buyers stepping in at $560
* Bullish divergence in Stochastic/MACD
* Break of lower highs on smaller timeframes
4. Key Indicators to Watch
* VWAP: If SPY trades below VWAP, bias remains bearish.
* 9 EMA & 21 EMA: If 9 EMA crosses below 21 EMA, trend confirms down.
* Options Flow: Watch for large put selling or call buying for a shift.
5. Risk Management
* Take profits quickly! Market is volatile.
* If SPY is choppy → Wait for clear breaks above/below key levels.
* Avoid counter-trend scalps unless you see strong divergences.
6. Summary
* Bias: Bearish below $560, bullish only if reclaiming $562.
* Bearish Setup: Breakdown below $560 → Target $555-$550
* Bullish Setup: Bounce off $560 → Target $565-$570
🚀 Game Plan: Watch SPY’s reaction at $560. If it holds, play the bounce. If it breaks, short to $555-$550. Stay nimble and manage risk tightly.
Let me know if you need real-time updates as market opens! 🔥
Trade active
SPY Market Update – March 21, 2025 (Afternoon Session)Recap of Our Morning Scalping Game Plan
✅ Bearish Scenario from This Morning:
• Short entry below $562 ✅ (confirmed rejection at resistance!)
• Target $560.50 → $558 ✅ (hit both levels!)
• Stop loss above $563 (held as resistance!)
⸻
1. What Happened After SPY Rejected $562?
• Price rejected hard at $562, confirming our resistance level.
• Dropped to $558.06, perfectly hitting our morning short target.
• Current Price: $561.27 (bouncing but still below resistance)
• Volume Increasing → Still potential for a move lower.
📌 This confirms that market makers are keeping price below resistance and still selling into rallies.
⸻
2. What’s Next for SPY?
Scenario A: Another Rejection at $562 → Bearish Continuation
📉 If SPY retests and fails at $562 again, expect another sell-off.
• Short Entry: Below $562 if rejection is confirmed.
• Target: $560.50 → $558 (again).
• Stop Loss: Above $563.
🔹 Confirmation Signals:
• Weak breakout attempt, low volume.
• MACD/Stochastic RSI turning bearish again.
• Sellers stepping in around $562-$563.
⸻
Scenario B: Break Above $562 → Bullish Reversal (Lower Probability)
📈 If SPY reclaims $562 and holds above, a move toward $563-$565 is possible.
• Long Entry: Above $562.50 with strong volume.
• Target: $563.50 → $565.
• Stop Loss: Below $561.
🔹 Confirmation Signals:
• Strong volume push above $562.
• Break of trendline resistance.
• Buyers stepping in aggressively.
⸻
3. My Final Thoughts for the Close
• If SPY stays below $562, we likely head lower into the close.
• If SPY reclaims $562+, we could see a squeeze toward $563-$565.
• Bias: Bearish until proven otherwise – Sellers still in control.
🚀 Game Plan:
• Short at $562 resistance if it holds.
• Long only if $562 breaks and holds.
• Expect volatility into the close due to OPEX!
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.