2019: Long-Term Bonds > Stocks... Why?
TLT has outperformed SPX by roughly 6% at time of writing. Many factors: FED cushioning rates, yield chasing by entities in negative-yield countries, fears of global slowdown, escalating trade war, and the perceived invincibility of U.S. markets.
There could be a seriously nasty rate spike within the next 2 years. As yields drop there is less incentive for entities to invest in bonds... if yields drop below the purported rate of inflation, which they already have (1.48% US10Y vs 1.6% PCE), there is no longer an incentive to hold them, as they produce negative returns. The deeper yields fall below inflation, or the higher inflation rises above yields, the stronger the momentum of a selloff. Will it happen? Free market forces would say yes, but considering the FED can print anything into a rainbow, the span and severity of such a spike is indeterminate... chances are that it will be uncontrollable for enough time to do some damage before the right players come to consensus on how to backstop it.
Long term we all know where this leads - negative rates for everyone, yay! A serious spike in yields should be seen as a patient opportunity. When the time is right, trade /TN, TLT options or whatever bond instrument you prefer.
There could be a seriously nasty rate spike within the next 2 years. As yields drop there is less incentive for entities to invest in bonds... if yields drop below the purported rate of inflation, which they already have (1.48% US10Y vs 1.6% PCE), there is no longer an incentive to hold them, as they produce negative returns. The deeper yields fall below inflation, or the higher inflation rises above yields, the stronger the momentum of a selloff. Will it happen? Free market forces would say yes, but considering the FED can print anything into a rainbow, the span and severity of such a spike is indeterminate... chances are that it will be uncontrollable for enough time to do some damage before the right players come to consensus on how to backstop it.
Long term we all know where this leads - negative rates for everyone, yay! A serious spike in yields should be seen as a patient opportunity. When the time is right, trade /TN, TLT options or whatever bond instrument you prefer.
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