$TNX Direction & Dot-Plot summary
Updated
Technical Analysis
Technically speaking, 1.6% had been a very important level, as we tested 6 times, before continuing higher.
Now the 10sma which has been working very well year-to-date, is lining up with the 1.6% level.
I expect some selling to reach the 10sma at 1.6%, for a bounce to 2%.
Dot Plot Summary
7/18 FOMC officials are predicting higher short-term interest rates by the end of 2023, as compared to 5/17 at the December meeting (i.e., a growing percentage who see an earlier start for rate hikes). Notably, four officials now expect a rate hike at some point next year.
Technically speaking, 1.6% had been a very important level, as we tested 6 times, before continuing higher.
Now the 10sma which has been working very well year-to-date, is lining up with the 1.6% level.
I expect some selling to reach the 10sma at 1.6%, for a bounce to 2%.
Dot Plot Summary
7/18 FOMC officials are predicting higher short-term interest rates by the end of 2023, as compared to 5/17 at the December meeting (i.e., a growing percentage who see an earlier start for rate hikes). Notably, four officials now expect a rate hike at some point next year.
Note
The 2% target is not my own opinion, but of Schwab's Chief Income Strategist.She was right on target with 1.6% level since 2020. However, technical analysis suggest she might be right again.
If you want to dig deeper, there are great free online resources, please let me know if you would like to have those, and I will be happy to share.
Have a great weekend everybody
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