How did I avoid the bitcoin crash -- using the data forecast
This wave of market, we once again successfully escape the top, review the past year in the coin circle experience, whether last November 6000 dollar break, this year January 3200 dollar bottom, July 13000 dollar peak, if you read my article, theoretically I am giving warning in advance. Why can I predict market movements in advance? In addition to the analysis of the chart, it also includes the interpretation of the market data.
We all know that in the digital money market, there is a huge amount of data, even big data processing robot, will also spend a lot of things, and a lot of junk information is invalid, but as ordinary investors, how do we make good use of data? What data can help us improve our judgment accuracy?
There is a large amount of public data in the market, and there are many apps that provide big data analysis, but we found that the effects of these data are uneven, and some of them are even data traps.
We all know that when I was writing articles on "golden finance", to use his pen name is "see figure poor currency", chose the name, just want to express an opinion, through the chart to analysis the market, can achieve the purpose of the final, so usually I don't see the message, and the app to provide large data, because I know the true, good and evil people mixed up, see much influence their own judgment instead.
In normal times, the data I value is often based on logic. For example, I don't look at the transaction volume, because there are too many fake elements, but the market value is relatively more credible. Therefore, I usually interpret the market value according to the market value. In the market value analysis, I judge the change of market value based on whether bitcoin is excluded or not, and also analyze the proportion of market value of bitcoin.
The interpretation of these data, for me, can effectively help me predict the change of market trend in advance.
This time around, for example, you can see a point I've made several times in the past: if this is a bull market, bitcoin shouldn't stand alone. Only a rise in the digital currency market as a whole is a bull market.
But you wouldn't know that from bitcoin and a few mainstream COINS, because they're all up 4-6 times.
We see that the value of digital currency market in July when peak as high as $310 billion, and then, eliminate the currency after the total market value of only $120 billion, the currency market value proportion is as high as 61%, and in January 18 years, the currency market value accounted for only 35%, that is to say the wave of market, currency ate the counterfeit currency 30% of market value, that is to say, this is a currency and a few mainstream currency, it is conceivable that a market, thousands of tokens, only a few dozen to rise again, the bull market is how is it possible?
Based on the market value and market value ratio, we can see the truth behind it, and based on the homogeneity of the market, we can also conclude that the trend of bitcoin and counterfeit COINS will not diverging. So we see that after peaking in early 18, the digital currency market as a whole (excluding bitcoin) lost 90% of its market value, and bitcoin fell 83%, a relatively synchronized move. However, this wave of adjustment (starting from July) shows that the total market value after excluding bitcoin lost nearly 40% as of September 16, while bitcoin only dropped 12%. From the perspective of consistency, this is an extremely unreasonable phenomenon, so I judged that bitcoin should have a trend of making up for the decline.
So over the past few weeks, I've written a number of articles outlining the risks here, and advising you to be prepared to hedge or sell off any cash you hold.
So you see, these data are open, but how to read is the key, if you simply look at volume, look at the price, the deal is not too much for you help, while the app data interpretation, often misleading, so we have to use the original data, with the method of logical analysis, explanation, let us deal more reasonable.
cn.tradingview.com
We all know that in the digital money market, there is a huge amount of data, even big data processing robot, will also spend a lot of things, and a lot of junk information is invalid, but as ordinary investors, how do we make good use of data? What data can help us improve our judgment accuracy?
There is a large amount of public data in the market, and there are many apps that provide big data analysis, but we found that the effects of these data are uneven, and some of them are even data traps.
We all know that when I was writing articles on "golden finance", to use his pen name is "see figure poor currency", chose the name, just want to express an opinion, through the chart to analysis the market, can achieve the purpose of the final, so usually I don't see the message, and the app to provide large data, because I know the true, good and evil people mixed up, see much influence their own judgment instead.
In normal times, the data I value is often based on logic. For example, I don't look at the transaction volume, because there are too many fake elements, but the market value is relatively more credible. Therefore, I usually interpret the market value according to the market value. In the market value analysis, I judge the change of market value based on whether bitcoin is excluded or not, and also analyze the proportion of market value of bitcoin.
The interpretation of these data, for me, can effectively help me predict the change of market trend in advance.
This time around, for example, you can see a point I've made several times in the past: if this is a bull market, bitcoin shouldn't stand alone. Only a rise in the digital currency market as a whole is a bull market.
But you wouldn't know that from bitcoin and a few mainstream COINS, because they're all up 4-6 times.
We see that the value of digital currency market in July when peak as high as $310 billion, and then, eliminate the currency after the total market value of only $120 billion, the currency market value proportion is as high as 61%, and in January 18 years, the currency market value accounted for only 35%, that is to say the wave of market, currency ate the counterfeit currency 30% of market value, that is to say, this is a currency and a few mainstream currency, it is conceivable that a market, thousands of tokens, only a few dozen to rise again, the bull market is how is it possible?
Based on the market value and market value ratio, we can see the truth behind it, and based on the homogeneity of the market, we can also conclude that the trend of bitcoin and counterfeit COINS will not diverging. So we see that after peaking in early 18, the digital currency market as a whole (excluding bitcoin) lost 90% of its market value, and bitcoin fell 83%, a relatively synchronized move. However, this wave of adjustment (starting from July) shows that the total market value after excluding bitcoin lost nearly 40% as of September 16, while bitcoin only dropped 12%. From the perspective of consistency, this is an extremely unreasonable phenomenon, so I judged that bitcoin should have a trend of making up for the decline.
So over the past few weeks, I've written a number of articles outlining the risks here, and advising you to be prepared to hedge or sell off any cash you hold.
So you see, these data are open, but how to read is the key, if you simply look at volume, look at the price, the deal is not too much for you help, while the app data interpretation, often misleading, so we have to use the original data, with the method of logical analysis, explanation, let us deal more reasonable.
cn.tradingview.com
30年的A股投资经历，水平虽然不高，但经验足够丰富。熊市避坑，牛市逃顶，对于新手可能有所帮助。
需要每日分析，请搜索微信号peter-tqbj，需要股市投资建议搜索星球{抱团取暖，迎接A股牛市}，或者星球号64802450
需要每日分析，请搜索微信号peter-tqbj，需要股市投资建议搜索星球{抱团取暖，迎接A股牛市}，或者星球号64802450
Related publications
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.