Altcoin Season Around the Corner?
Updated
Since the recent uptrend of BTCUSD began in early April, the market capitalizations of Bitcoin (marked in orange) and altcoins (marked in blue) have been diverging. This implies that while the rest of the cryptocurrency market has also trended upwards along with Bitcoin, these moves are relatively muted in comparison to Bitcoin.
The last time such a divergence was seen during an uptrend was mid to late 2017, just before the entire market moved parabolically, and at a nosebleed rate. Looking at past market cycles, it can be deduced that during bullish trends, altcoins tend to have a delayed reaction to surges in Bitcoin price. This can be seen in the most recent bull market of 2017, during which altcoins peaked nearly 1 month after Bitcoin peaked at the $20,000 level. This is commonly referred to altcoin season.
Given this, short to medium-term traders should keep an eye on the rest of the cryptocurrency markets, namely larger altcoins (i.e. XRP, Litecoin, Ethereum, and so on). A delayed reaction to the recent uptrend in Bitcoin could be around the corner. That being said however, I believe that Bitcoin likely still has much more upside in the short to medium term, and that such a bullish indication for the altcoin markets should not be deemed as a bearish indication for Bitcoin.
If Bitcoin trades above $10,000 in the near future, I believe that FOMO could begin to pick up in momentum, and this could potentially result in capital inflows to the rest of the cryptocurrency markets.
The last time such a divergence was seen during an uptrend was mid to late 2017, just before the entire market moved parabolically, and at a nosebleed rate. Looking at past market cycles, it can be deduced that during bullish trends, altcoins tend to have a delayed reaction to surges in Bitcoin price. This can be seen in the most recent bull market of 2017, during which altcoins peaked nearly 1 month after Bitcoin peaked at the $20,000 level. This is commonly referred to altcoin season.
Given this, short to medium-term traders should keep an eye on the rest of the cryptocurrency markets, namely larger altcoins (i.e. XRP, Litecoin, Ethereum, and so on). A delayed reaction to the recent uptrend in Bitcoin could be around the corner. That being said however, I believe that Bitcoin likely still has much more upside in the short to medium term, and that such a bullish indication for the altcoin markets should not be deemed as a bearish indication for Bitcoin.
If Bitcoin trades above $10,000 in the near future, I believe that FOMO could begin to pick up in momentum, and this could potentially result in capital inflows to the rest of the cryptocurrency markets.
Note
Final Verdict: Divergence has only widened since publishing. A new idea has been posted (linked below) with updated thoughts and comments.
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