2023/4: Surfing TQQQ - Awaiting Entry eta end June
Updated
Technicals:
1. RSI has probably peaked
2. MACD has probably peaked
Fundamentals:
1. None
Analysis:
1. Awaiting downward move for potential June Entry
Note
Technicals:1. Seasonals looking for a pullback in the end of June, as expected:
jeffhirsch.tumblr.com/post/718951144281554944/nasdaq-and-russell-2000-lead-june-pre-election
Analysis:
1. Awaiting end June entry
Note
TQQQ: 39.90Technicals:
1. MACD has refused to move down over the past 2 weeks
2. Price kept moving up to a ridiculous $39.90 now
3. There is little chance of it moving down enough over the next 1 week to allow an entry
Fundamentals:
1. Fed Reserve probably will pause tonight (finally), but it will have no bearing on our opportunity (point 2 above)
Analysis:
1. Wave is unlikely to be optimal to enter, but keep watch anyway for the next month.
Note
TQQQ: 40.14Technicals:
1. MACD (on QQQ) has printed its first negative (after almost a month of waiting..)
Fundamentals:
2. Summer holidays is here and I do not believe fund managers will want to leave so much risk on the table over the next few weeks/months when they can print an outstanding first half
Analysis:
1. Keep watching and see if it makes a bottom by early July.
Note
TQQQ: 37.81Technicals:
1. MACD printing the 2nd negative bar shortly
2. Based on symmetry, it will go positive only on 21 July, which means it would peak in Aug - not ideal exit point based on fractals
Analysis:
1. Will keep watch and see situation.
Note
TQQQ: 41.28Technicals:
1. MACD printing a rise back to positive again
2. Very likely to move to positive in the next 2-3 sessions
Analysis:
1. Do we take this trade?
2. I think it is highly risky but could go either way, never know
3. My inclination is to stay out, because of the yummy 6% yield I'm getting for
MINT4. But a trading plan is a trading plan and it is not good to deviate from it
Note
TQQQ: 41.97Technicals:
1. Here we are again, not able to make the positive last week, and moving to positive MACD
2. Another likely move to positive in next 2-3 sessions
Fundamentals:
1. Yesterday inflation numbers printed at 3% year on year and 0.2% in June and set up the rally on all assets and a dump in the USD
Analysis:
1. It is way too late to enter into TQQQ at this time
2. It would have been barely ok to enter in early July
3. I confirm my preference to stay out
4. I don't think there is much gas to move up much more
5. Risk adjusted, it is not worth it
6. Will monitor just for the sake of seeing price action
Note
TQQQ: 44.02Technicals:
1. Finally, 2 days later, we have printed the first positive MACD
Fundamentals:
1. This is bullish only based on Fed halting rates and belief in a soft landing
Analysis:
1. This entry is only for those who love risks, and worse, comes with little potential reward - but anything can happen
2. As I confirmed, I will stay out
3. Will follow this move up and then to exit
Note
TQQQ: $42.69Technicals:
1. We got our first negative MACD
Analysis:
1. This is the signal to get out, and it is not surprising coming in just into the summer holidays
2. This trade would have been slightly negative, but it was expected, and I stayed out anyway
3. I will be on my vacation too, and back looking for trades on TQQQ again in September, in the meantime, its 100% in money market getting yummy rates
4. Have great summer holidays, see you soon!
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