TRV - Looking lower
After an earnings miss in late October (10/22) which saw the stock trade 8% lower, TRV has slowly trudged higher and has recovered half of that loss over the past two months. That being said, we are starting to see signs of waning buying pressure. Since the beginning of December(12/2 high of 137.26), TRV has been tracking sideways in what looks like a retest of the breakdown from October's earnings call. I cannot rule out a subsequent move higher to test the upper portion of the breakdown (the failed support just above $142) but it looks as though we may be presented with a decent short setup at current levels. Specifically, the action on 12/20 stands out: volume expanded to its highest level since Oct earnings (and highest volume day of the year outside of earnings) and closed well off the highs; although there was a big gap up, TRV closed down 3bps on the day. Also, and equally important, this move created a false break above the 12/2 high and then saw 3 consecutive days of weak closes. Ideally we would see an uptick in volume accompanied by a nice down bar to indicate a healthy dose of supply but with holiday trading conditions it may have to wait a week or so. I'm waiting on confirmation with the prospect of a better entry up around 142ish but I wouldn't hesitate to jump on a short with an overtly bearish day/closing bar. Let's see how this turns out, I'll update when more is revealed.
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