Short

TSLA 120 minutes Chart Moving Average pullbacks for Short Entry

Updated

TSLA has been trending down in a channel since it marked the first trading day of this new year.

The chart is set up on a 120-minute time frame with the Williams Alligator indicator of

SMA10 SMA20 and SMA50 ( offsets 10, 5, & 2). In a strong downtrend, the averages are parallel

with SMA50 higher then SMA20 and SMA 10. For a good short entry, the price should pullback (

and up) through the SMA10 but not through the SMA20. An entry is taken when price falls

back through the SMA10. The supertrend may be reversing if any of the lines cross in a

golden fashion or price crosses the SMA20 or SMA50. On the chart, red down arrows mark the

best six entries YTD. There have been no exits despite any shorting pullbacks such as the past

day or so more or less from some news catalyst delivered by a certain fund manager to protect

her glut max and maybe wallets of clients. This strategy is well suited for a low intensity low

effort & minimal screen time type trader of shares or options to strike a balance overall and

profitable one at that with more simplicity and less complexity with noise and indicator

overload tuned out.

Trade active

The higher the dead cat bounce, the better for another short entry.

Note

Could a whale be trying to prop up TSLA with incremental adds to fortify the case of the CEO in seeking to move the HQ to Austin TX and get the compensation package
complaint with the court ruling? Remember what happened with the Twitter takeover? Remember the SEC sanction when there was rug pull fake attempt to privatize TSLA and jack up the share prices to allow for profiteering? What you saw may be what you will see again.

Trade active

TSLA appears ready to run in sync with the general market correction on the hot inflation report. I have added to the position during the dead cat bounce.
TSDD is an ETF inverse to TSLA and 2x leverage to take a look at if you are shorting TSLA.

Note

Barron's · 2024/02/13 22:30 GMT-07:00
Al Root

Tesla stock has been having a terrible start to the new year. Figuring out what has been driving shares can be difficult for investors. Figuring out why the shares have declined so much is a relatively easy task.

The answer lies in the wisdom of crowds. Look at Wall Street earnings estimates. They are the numerical reflection of all the news impacting any company -- Tesla included.

Coming into Wednesday, Tesla stock has fallen 26% this year while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite have both risen about 4%. It's the worst start for Tesla shares since 2016 when they dropped almost 40% over a similar span to start that year.

The drop this year is steep, but the size of it makes a lot of sense. The current consensus call for Tesla's 2024 earnings per share is about $3.08, according to FactSet. The estimate started the year at about $3.84. Estimates have come down about 20%. The fall closely mirrors what Tesla stock has done within a few percentage points.

Looking back to October -- just before Tesla stock dropped 9.3% after the electric-vehicle company reported third-quarter earnings -- Wall Street's earnings estimate for 2024 was roughly $4.50 a share. The estimate is down about 30% since then. Tesla stock has fallen about 24% over the same span.

Analysts don't change just one estimate at a time. Wall Street's 2025 earnings estimates are down as well, roughly 20% lower since the start of the year. Taking a longer view, 2025 estimates peaked north of $8 a share in December 2022. They are down 50% since then to $4.23 a share. Tesla stock has fallen 55% from its all-time closing high of just under $410 a share reached in November 2021.

Estimate revisions are a useful tool for investors to check if stock moves make sense. When they line up -- as they have with Tesla lately -- it's a sign that investors are worried about company fundamentals. When revisions and the stock moves don't line up, it's a signal that something else is on investors' minds.

Remember Twitter? Tesla CEO Elon Musk tweeted that he had made a bid for Twitter in April 2022. From that tweet, through the end of that year, Tesla stock dropped some 60%. Wall Street's estimates for 2023 earnings -- stocks always trade on future earnings -- rose from about $4.68 to $5.59 a share over the same span.

The divergence shows that Musk's Twitter distraction bothered Tesla investors. After those fears faded, Tesla stock doubled in 2023 despite vehicle price cuts and rising interest rates.

To be sure, estimate revisions can't do everything for investors. They can't tell them exactly what is going on at a company. There are many reasons Tesla's earnings estimates have been coming down. For starters, there are those price cuts that have hurt profit margins. And those higher interest rates have made all cars more expensive for buyers. There also is more EV competition around the globe and Tesla doesn't look like it will have a lower-priced model that can help expand its addressable market until 2025.

Those are some of the headwinds the company faces. Those headwinds have been evaluated by more than 40 analysts, resulting in lower earnings estimates. Investors have reacted to those reduced estimates by sending Tesla stock lower.

On a very basic level, that's how the stock market is supposed to work.

Write to Al Root at allen.root@dowjones.com

This content was created by Barron's, which is operated by Dow Jones & Co. Barron's is published independently from Dow Jones Newswires and The Wall Street Journal.

(END) Dow Jones Newswires

February 14, 2024 05:30 ET (10:30 GMT)

Copyright (c) 2024 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.

Trade active

Is TSLA doing a correction to the trend down or is it early in a reversal ?

youtube.com/watch?v=an6kv9OSLN4

AwesomeAvani

Disclaimer

The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.