All safe now? I'm getting sus...
Updated
In the case of TSLA there is a lot of information that can also be interpreted in different ways. I am invested myself, which is why I am looking for situations where it makes sense to either realize profits or to secure my profits with a hedge.
In my post on NKLA, I showed how to detect a bubble. Therefore, this analysis specifically relates to this post:
The volume since October 2019 shows that the largest volume was in the $ 50-200 range. Despite the sale in March, I would call this the “loading zone”, as relatively little volume was traded during this drop. This can be seen from the small difference in volume from the reversal in March. Considering all trades since October 2019, the transactions in the range of ~$70 still had the largest volume, which only indicates that those who bought there have not yet sold again. Above that there are two areas in which larger (but still small compared to the “loading zone”) volume appear. I assign this to the sale after the split (“buy the hype sell the news”) and to the uncertainty about inclusion in the S&P500. However, despite the “bad” news, the price was able to hold up, which indicates that there were still enough buyers.
Now that all is "Safe" about Tesla, this offers a good chance of blistering. The current increase occurs with almost no volume and an acceleration without fuel should be viewed critically:
There could be two causes:
1) A bubble arises because Tesla is so "safe" and everyone reports that it can only go up.
2) Nobody sells: the market is looking for open orders that seem to be only higher.
In both cases, the volume should now be carefully considered in relation to the price movement.
Resistance will probably in the $ 640-660 and $ 775-780 ranges.
In summary I'm getting a little more carefull with Tesla.
I deffinetly do not sell my Stocks, because I dont want to sell them. I will search for a Option-strategy to safe my gains.
That’s my opinion and should be treated like it.
No trade advice!
In my post on NKLA, I showed how to detect a bubble. Therefore, this analysis specifically relates to this post:
The volume since October 2019 shows that the largest volume was in the $ 50-200 range. Despite the sale in March, I would call this the “loading zone”, as relatively little volume was traded during this drop. This can be seen from the small difference in volume from the reversal in March. Considering all trades since October 2019, the transactions in the range of ~$70 still had the largest volume, which only indicates that those who bought there have not yet sold again. Above that there are two areas in which larger (but still small compared to the “loading zone”) volume appear. I assign this to the sale after the split (“buy the hype sell the news”) and to the uncertainty about inclusion in the S&P500. However, despite the “bad” news, the price was able to hold up, which indicates that there were still enough buyers.
Now that all is "Safe" about Tesla, this offers a good chance of blistering. The current increase occurs with almost no volume and an acceleration without fuel should be viewed critically:
There could be two causes:
1) A bubble arises because Tesla is so "safe" and everyone reports that it can only go up.
2) Nobody sells: the market is looking for open orders that seem to be only higher.
In both cases, the volume should now be carefully considered in relation to the price movement.
Resistance will probably in the $ 640-660 and $ 775-780 ranges.
In summary I'm getting a little more carefull with Tesla.
I deffinetly do not sell my Stocks, because I dont want to sell them. I will search for a Option-strategy to safe my gains.
That’s my opinion and should be treated like it.
No trade advice!
Note
Another breakthrough is a sign of strength! This is why I close my hedge in the next few tradingdays. Next resistance can be at 775-780. If this goes through as usual the next price target is around 870. Have a great new Year!
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