TSLA: do or die time.

Lots to not like here. Aside from the obvious disconnect from "fundamentals reality", in the short term:

* bearish divergence -- RSI making lower highs while price hit higher highs
* short term trend line under duress; could make argument of a small bear wedge but meh
* elon is thinking of selling shares (for world hunger ofc - just highlighting they're probably getting calls from banks asking them to raise some cash; will there be a secondary?)
* RIVN ipo is around the corner. Why not sell some TSLA and put a nut in there?
* do we see reports of people cancelling cybertruck orders in favor of a rivian?

Options on this sucker are not cheap at all!

I currently have a single 1230 nov 12 put and will look at these three choices depending on how monday opens:
(1) buy deep in the money short term puts
(2) buy longer dated very out-of-the-money puts and hope to get a volatility spike
(3) short in-the-money call spreads.

i think visiting 1000 is possible but the easy trade is 1100.

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UHhh... nailed it? twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1457064697782489088
(elon thinking of selling shares).... looks like 30B of tsla might be dropped.

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noting we are nearing the first supportish zone from this morning bounce, which interestingly is also the 20 day moving average ~~ 1030. I think we may breach this over the next few sessions and hit the longer term uptrend line (thick green) which is currently around 970 or so.

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If you look here: finviz.com/insidertrading.ashx?oc=1494730&tc=7&b=2 you will see that Elon has already sold 4.5M shares worth about 5.5B$. the volume of transactions today was significantly lower than previous days - probably because of the rivian deal. however, most importantly, i think he will continue to sell through the next several days and we are going to keep seeing pressure and filings coming out: shorting any bounces in the short term probably the right play.

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as i expected, we see that musk sold additional shares yesterday. while it is conceivable he might slow down or stop, I think he will leak out the rest over the course of the month (vs previous commennt of days). pulling 20b+ cash out of this name in this short a period of time, with the RIVN ipo pulling more cash from the EV space - there is more pain to be had ahead. I'm continuing to buy puts on rallies and think we may even close that gap around 900-950. interesting, the best place now seems to be F.

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getting short again

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wow, soon as I go short short term turns up again.. sigh. if we get back over 1100 i'll take the loss.

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ouch, okay back out. waiting for better setup.

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simply noting we're around that 1133 zone again. technicals still have not deteriorated so i'm still sitting on the side waiting for the next short setup. as I again rediscovered yesterday, patience is key with this one! one thing to note is that SEC requirements are to file your form 4 within 2 days of a transaction. it does seem that musk may have either slowed or stopped selling; if he sold on the 17th, that would need to show up sometime today (it still has not as of market close)

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this AM I added the 1200 puts; legged into spread with selling 1075s

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also, noting that if you sum up the sales from the form 4 filings, elon has only sold roughly 8m shares. he is apparently not selling anything this week. I expect he will return to selling before the end of the year. i think if he waits too long to sell the remaining ~~ 10m shares he committed to on twitter, he will start to run into legal risk. even though he didnt give a timeframe, I think numbers like 'within 30 days' or 'within 90 days' would be reasonable; much later than that will open to exposure. i'm leaning to the 30 days - I.e. by the end of the year.

tacosaurus

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tacosaurus

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