Long

TESLA LONG TERM/SHORT TERM TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

Updated

:
4 HOUR/BAR CHART ON LEFT SIDE (SHORT TERM) SHOWING SINCE OCTOBER ’22 (LAST 3 MONTHS).
2 DAY/BAR CHART ON RIGHT SIDE (LONG TERM) SHOWING SINCE JANUARY, ‘20 (LAST 3 YEARS).

is down roughly 58% since the start of October 2022 but is still up 299% percent since the beginning of 2020.

Evaluating the short-term trend (left side) against the long term trend (right side) we begin using the EMA Envelope found in the top box on both sides. We can see that is still in a bearish (red) trend in our long term chart (upper right box) but has just turned neutral (yellow) on our short term chart (upper left box). EMA Envelope turns bullish above the top red line of the EMA Snake. Respectively the bullish levels on the 4H are above 113.57 and bullish on the 2D is above 147.34.

Our 4-hour Fibs (left side) show a full retrace down to the RET 1 (104.22) from our early December peak of around 200 with a 0.5 Retrace at 151.57.

Our 2D Fibs (right side) show a more than full retrace down to the RET 1.382 at 109.47 and are currently showing a 0.5 Retrace at 240.43.

I believe there is a high possibility that on the 4H chart (left side), retraces the RET 0.786 (124.49) in the near term (2-4 weeks) and a low to moderate possibility that attempts a retest of the RET 0.5 (151.57) before eventually being rejected. I do not believe a retrace of the RET 0.5 (240.43) on the 2D chart (right side) is currently a viable possibility given the market liquidity constraints and an overall disdain for the discretionary sector heading into recessionary headwinds in 2023. On the downside, a spill to the RET 1.236 (81.87) on the 4H Fibs (left side) is very possible in a broad market selloff.

Breaking out the left side of the chart, which is the shorter time frame (4H), we can see white arrows beginning in the price box and moving down into each of the indicator boxes below. We see the white arrow line in the price box is trending down while the white arrow lines in MACD, RSI and OBV indicator boxes are trending up. Price declining into rising relative strength (RSI) and positive increases in volume flow (OBV) can be indicative of market price absorption at these levels. At a minimum it can be viewed as evidence of ‘diminishing sell pressure’.

On the right side of the chart we see that RSI is showing its deepest levels of oversold in the last 3 years and we have to go back to 2016 (7 years) to find a deeper level of oversold on the RSI. (see below) We can also see the MACD indicator on the right side is still showing wide downside divergence at the mouth, indicating that price has alot of upside work to do in order to close that gap and move the long term trend into positive territory.

While the woodshedding of Tesla might not be completely over yet, it seems as though it might have found a near-term 'local bottom' along with a bit of price stability as evidenced by the 'market absorption' illustrated on the 4H chart. Assuming this support holds, Tesla could be poised to make a move up to the 122-128 price range. (Not financial advice)

Trade closed: target reached

TSLA breached the lower end of its target zone which was 122-128.

Note

Stayed under the 240 mark!

The_Firewalker

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