On OPEC & OIL
Since May 2021, S&P 500 has gained almost 10%, while Copper/Oil ratio has lost 52%; which means oil prices are relatively higher than the Global economic growth capacities.
IEA reported the same idea on Global OIL demand this week, which is totally in contrast with OPEC's demand assessments noted in it's August report.
Since these high prices are weighing on U.S. Trade Balance & causing inflationary pressures, White House has already reached OPEC for lower prices.
While OPEC is counting on strong Global growth to reach it's basket pricing, a failure on that could force the Cartel to cut it's prices; The bad scenario is a continued divergence between OPEC basket pricing & the global growth capacities, which could at last end in a pressure on World Economies which are already in ultra low Interest Rates & looming Tapering stages.
I believe the above divergence scenario has a little chance to happen, But still a possibility since OPEC miscalculation isn't new.
Whether OIL prices lower to match the world growth capacity or world recovery reach the high energy prices according to OPEC's anticipation, is to be judged by the unveiling Fundamental Factors including Delta variant outbreak & vaccines effectiveness.
However any prolonged divergent policy, despite being unlikely, could cause recessionary pressures.
IEA reported the same idea on Global OIL demand this week, which is totally in contrast with OPEC's demand assessments noted in it's August report.
Since these high prices are weighing on U.S. Trade Balance & causing inflationary pressures, White House has already reached OPEC for lower prices.
While OPEC is counting on strong Global growth to reach it's basket pricing, a failure on that could force the Cartel to cut it's prices; The bad scenario is a continued divergence between OPEC basket pricing & the global growth capacities, which could at last end in a pressure on World Economies which are already in ultra low Interest Rates & looming Tapering stages.
I believe the above divergence scenario has a little chance to happen, But still a possibility since OPEC miscalculation isn't new.
Whether OIL prices lower to match the world growth capacity or world recovery reach the high energy prices according to OPEC's anticipation, is to be judged by the unveiling Fundamental Factors including Delta variant outbreak & vaccines effectiveness.
However any prolonged divergent policy, despite being unlikely, could cause recessionary pressures.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.