$UPST Gap fill or sub 20
Upstart - not really sure what they do ;0 - but the stock is up 15% today so someone is buying here
Bull case - Nice close above 10day MA , is a start to possible upleg for the 76.23 gap fill , currently trading around $50 implying a $26 dollar move.
Bear case - a new high is not made and upon rejection lower lows targeting $20 zone or less, implying around a -30$ move
With the giant gap above I think it's important to remember supply and demand here - most holders who didn't sell are sitting higher above (supply), seeing their ticker have +15% days is very promising! As such they are holding (bag holders), until break even at least or more, hence there will be heavy supply once ticker gets to this zone but not much until then, for those people already sold. And now we have demand/ buyers with bottom fishing who are currently up depending on entry. They will sell along the way causing dips, however many who bought in 30's and even 40's are green and holding for more.
Hence under the above, Demand should outweigh supply until gap fill zone...
Trade idea for bull case - Calls are expensive and I want time here, so JUL 60/80 debit spread, as given the supply area will most likely IMO overwhelm demand after gap fill .
Trade idea for bear case - bear call spreads for less risk or naked puts a few months out with $37 being first target.
My bias is to the upside
Cheers
Bull case - Nice close above 10day MA , is a start to possible upleg for the 76.23 gap fill , currently trading around $50 implying a $26 dollar move.
Bear case - a new high is not made and upon rejection lower lows targeting $20 zone or less, implying around a -30$ move
With the giant gap above I think it's important to remember supply and demand here - most holders who didn't sell are sitting higher above (supply), seeing their ticker have +15% days is very promising! As such they are holding (bag holders), until break even at least or more, hence there will be heavy supply once ticker gets to this zone but not much until then, for those people already sold. And now we have demand/ buyers with bottom fishing who are currently up depending on entry. They will sell along the way causing dips, however many who bought in 30's and even 40's are green and holding for more.
Hence under the above, Demand should outweigh supply until gap fill zone...
Trade idea for bull case - Calls are expensive and I want time here, so JUL 60/80 debit spread, as given the supply area will most likely IMO overwhelm demand after gap fill .
Trade idea for bear case - bear call spreads for less risk or naked puts a few months out with $37 being first target.
My bias is to the upside
Cheers
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