Is oil price about to collaps ?
Updated
The history of US. Oil/$ chart vs US02Y-US10Y chart (inverted) : show that the cude price is lagging the move of the US. spread between 2s/10s. "Is oil price is about to collaps ? or this time is diffrent because of OPEC+ cutts ?"
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"OPEC+ JMMC agrees oil output cuts of 2 mln bpd - Sources." 15:05 Oct 05Note
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"The strong US. Job Report will be taken by the market as bearish for Oil price, because the Fed will use this data as argument to tighten more the financial condition."Note
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OPEC+ announced that they would be cutting supply by 2MMbbls/d from November through until the end of 2023.Goldman Sachs raised its Q4 oil price forecast by USD 10 to USD 110/bbl and said the OPEC+ supply cut is very bullish for oil.
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WTI +16.83%Note
WSJ: "🇮🇶Iraq says it won't comply with the new 🇸🇦OPEC+ production cut (the country needs all the 🛢️oil revenue it can get)."Note
US. WTI oil price is back to the levels of were Opec+ announced it's 2million barrel cut per day.Note
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The price of :oil: oil has broken throught the uptrend of 2020 and for now the price action is finding support at the level of 2019. With today the US Manufacturing PMI surprised lower with 49.9 vs market consensus 51.0, traders should expect the price of oil will go down further, because the reading below 50 indicates contraction in the private sector. "Except the rapid decline during the first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic in the spring of 2020, US. business output is retreating at the swiftest pace since the 2007-2009 global financial crisis, by S&P Global's measure at least."On the weekly time frame the price of oil should ease and the direction will be lower towards the 200MA and 0.618 Fibonacci level.
OOTT Chart
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Updating the ChartOil price is continuing to move lower, despite OPEC+ commetting to maintaine the cut of 02mln BPD cut, until end of 2023.
02YR-10YR Spread -0.79% (All time low).
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⚠️ U.S. Oil Price is Down 5% today and down 3% in YTD.
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