Nasdaq US100 long Aim for Strong Monthly Performance
Updated
Aim for Strong Monthly Performance Ahead of PCE Data
Looking at the second quarter, the S&P 500 has risen 6.99%, set for a third straight quarter of gains. The Nasdaq boasts a gain of 11.2%, marking back-to-back positive quarters. The Dow has jumped 2.55%, also heading for a third winning quarter.
Looking at the second quarter, the S&P 500 has risen 6.99%, set for a third straight quarter of gains. The Nasdaq boasts a gain of 11.2%, marking back-to-back positive quarters. The Dow has jumped 2.55%, also heading for a third winning quarter.
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Wall Street Edges Higher on Shortened Monday SessionUS stocks closed with marginal gains on a shortened Monday session, setting the stage for caution in the second half of the year as markets continued to assess the economy’s resilience to further monetary tightening from the Federal Reserve. The Dow added 10 points, while the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq edged 0.1% and 0.2% higher, respectively. Shares from rate-sensitive sectors edged lower after ISM PMI data showed that US manufacturing contracted more than expected for an eighth consecutive month in June, reigniting concerns that restrictive borrowing costs will hamper economic activity to a large extent. Apple closed 1% down to set the pace for tech giants, pressured by news that the company cut production forecasts for the mixed-reality Vision Pro headset. On the other hand, Tesla rallied 6% as the company beat deliveries and production estimates for Q2. Stock exchanges in the US will be closed on Tuesday for the Independence Day holiday.
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TREND BLLISH PROFIT TAKINGS AND MORE ACCUMULATIONS
US Mortgage Rates Rise to 8-Month HighUnited States 30 Year Mortgage Rate
The average rate on a 30-year fixed mortgage increased by 10 basis points from the previous week to 6.81% in the week ending July 6th, the highest November 2022 as higher interest from the Federal Reserve underpinned expensive mortgage rates for American consumers. A year ago, the 30-year fixed mortgage rate was at 5.3%. “Mortgage rates continued their upward trajectory again this week, rising to the highest rate this year so far,” said Sam Khater, Freddie Mac’s Chief Economist. “This upward trend is being driven by a resilient economy, persistent inflation and a more hawkish tone from the Federal Reserve. These high rates combined with low inventory continue to price many potential homebuyers out of the market.”
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Wall Street Ends in the GreenThe Dow Jones closed more than 209 points higher on Monday, while the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq added 0.2% each, as investors awaited the US consumer and producer inflation reports later this week and braced for the start of the second quarter earnings season. The upcoming inflation report is expected to offer additional evidence regarding inflationary pressures and provide insights into the Federal Reserve's future actions. Traders are currently pricing in a nearly 92% chance for a 25bps increase in the fed funds rate this month, but the odds for another quarter point hike later in the year have been swinging, currently standing at 22% for September and 33% for November. Healthcare shares were among top performers of the session including Amgen (+2.5%). Also, Inter (+2.8%), Honeywell (+2.2%) and Home Depot (2.5%) outperformed while mega cap shares dragged as Apple (-1.1%), Tesla (-1.7%), Microsoft (-1.6%), Alphabet (-2.5%) and Amazon (-2%) ended in the red.
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US 10-Year Treasury Yield Down for 2nd SessionThe yield on the US 10-year Treasury note fell below 4%, retreating for the second consecutive session after hitting its highest since November 2022 at almost 4.1% as investors turned cautious ahead of key economic data that could influence the Federal Reserve’s next interest rate policy moves. The CPI report on Wednesday is expected to show headline annual inflation fell to 3.1% in June from 4% in the previous month, while the core index probably decreased to 5% from 5.3%. Markets are now pricing in a 94.9% chance of rates being hiked again during the central bank’s upcoming meeting on July 25-26 but uncertainty remains for the other three Fed meetings scheduled for later in the year. In the latest Fed commentary, Fed President Mary Daly said that she expects two further rate hikes to be announced this year to lower inflation, in line with early comments from Fed Chairman Jerome Powell.
Americans Become More Pessimistic in July
The IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism Index in the US unexpectedly fell to 41.3 in July 2023, the lowest since November last year, compared to 41.7 in June and market forecasts of 45.3. It also marks a 23rd month the reading stands below 50, indicating Americans remain pessimistic. “The economy continues to be the number one issue for Americans as we prepare for earnings season and new inflation data. The Six-Month Economic Outlook was the lone bright spot for July, as optimism slightly increased for the long-term, but it’s still a long way from positive. Expect some more twists and turns before consumers trust that the economy has stabilized”, said Ed Carson, IBD's news editor. The Personal Financial Outlook, a measure of how Americans feel about their own finances in the next six months, fell to 50 from 51.9 and the gauge for Confidence in Federal Economic Policies edged lower to 38.5 from 38.6. On the other hand, the Six-Month Economic Outlook rose to 35.5 from 34.5.
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US 10-Year Treasury Yield Down for 2nd SessionThe yield on the US 10-year Treasury note fell below 4%, retreating for the second consecutive session after hitting its highest since November 2022 at almost 4.1% as investors turned cautious ahead of key economic data that could influence the Federal Reserve’s next interest rate policy moves. The CPI report on Wednesday is expected to show headline annual inflation fell to 3.1% in June from 4% in the previous month, while the core index probably decreased to 5% from 5.3%. Markets are now pricing in a 94.9% chance of rates being hiked again during the central bank’s upcoming meeting on July 25-26 but uncertainty remains for the other three Fed meetings scheduled for later in the year. In the latest Fed commentary, Fed President Mary Daly said that she expects two further rate hikes to be announced this year to lower inflation, in line with early comments from Fed Chairman Jerome Powell.
Americans Become More Pessimistic in July
The IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism Index in the US unexpectedly fell to 41.3 in July 2023, the lowest since November last year, compared to 41.7 in June and market forecasts of 45.3. It also marks a 23rd month the reading stands below 50, indicating Americans remain pessimistic. “The economy continues to be the number one issue for Americans as we prepare for earnings season and new inflation data. The Six-Month Economic Outlook was the lone bright spot for July, as optimism slightly increased for the long-term, but it’s still a long way from positive. Expect some more twists and turns before consumers trust that the economy has stabilized”, said Ed Carson, IBD's news editor. The Personal Financial Outlook, a measure of how Americans feel about their own finances in the next six months, fell to 50 from 51.9 and the gauge for Confidence in Federal Economic Policies edged lower to 38.5 from 38.6. On the other hand, the Six-Month Economic Outlook rose to 35.5 from 34.5.
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Wall Street Extends Gain Ahead of CPI DataUS stocks closed higher on Tuesday, extending gains for the second session, as investors looked forward to the key inflation report due tomorrow. The Dow Jones finished over 316 points higher, as Salesforce rose 3.9% after the company announced it will be increasing list prices an average of 9% in August. 3M and Boeing were also among the top performers and advanced by 4.8% and 2.6%, respectively. The S&P 500 gained nearly 0.7%, led by the energy sector as APA (+6.3%), Halliburton (+4.2%) and Schlumberger (+4.5%) outperformed. Meanwhile, the Nasdaq added 0.5%. Traders were also digesting comments from several Fed officials which continued to point to the need of further tightening this year. The odds for a 25bps increase in the fed funds rate this year currently stand at 95%, but investors remain divided about another rate hike. The economic calendar is soft today and the earnings season kicks off later in the week.
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Dollar Index Hits 14-month LowDXY decreased to a 14-month low of 100.61
Wall Street Rallies after Softer Inflation
US stocks surged on Wednesday after both headline and core inflation fell more than expected in June, reinforcing the view the Federal Reserve may stop the tightening campaign sooner than expected. The Dow Jones gained around 250 points to 34548, the highest level since November last year, with 3M and Goldman Sachs up nearly 2% and among the top performers. The S&P 500 added 0.9% 4477, a level not seen since April of 2022, led by shares in the consumer discretionary, tech and real estate sectors. The Nasdaq was up about 1.2% to 13906, also the highest since April last year. Traders are currently pricing in a 92% chance for a 25bps increase in the fed funds rate this month, while the odds for another quarter-point hike in September fell to 13% from 20% before the CPI release and in November eased to 26% from 34%.
Brazil Business Morale Rises to 8-Month High
The Industrial Entrepreneur Confidence Index (ICEI) in Brazil rose by 0.7 points from the previous month to an eight-month high of 51.1 in July of 2023. This marks the second consecutive month in which the industry has shown confidence, attributed primarily to a more positive evaluation of the current economic conditions (+1.3 points to 45.5). Also, the indicator of future expectations increased (+0.4 points to 53.9), indicating optimism for the next six months.
FTSE MIB Close Rise to 15-Year High
The FTSE MIB index closed 1.8% higher at 28,573 on Wednesday, outperforming other benchmark European indices amid sharp gains for its heavyweight financial sector as markets digested the soft US inflation print. American consumer prices rose by 3% annually in June, below estimates of 3.1%, benefitting from a slowdown in core consumer prices. The development lifted equities amid hopes that the Fed will be able to ease its hawkish pressure. Banks were among the sharpest gainers as BTP yields fell by 15bps, aiding their balance sheet with Banca MPS and Banco BPM both adding more than 2%. In the meantime, STMicroelectronics shares surged 4.8% amid recommendation updates from Jeffries and Citigroup.
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US stocks surged on Wednesday after both headline and core inflation fell more than expected in June, reinforcing the view the Federal Reserve may stop the tightening campaign sooner than expected. The Dow Jones gained around 250 points to 34548, the highest level since November last year, with 3M and Goldman Sachs up nearly 2% and among the top performers. The S&P 500 added 0.9% 4477, a level not seen since April of 2022, led by shares in the consumer discretionary, tech and real estate sectors. The Nasdaq was up about 1.2% to 13906, also the highest since April last year. Traders are currently pricing in a 92% chance for a 25bps increase in the fed funds rate this month, while the odds for another quarter-point hike in September fell to 13% from 20% before the CPI release and in November eased to 26% from 34%.Note
The greenback is approaching a make-or-break moment — at least as far as a closely watched technical indicator is concerned.The Bloomberg Dollar Index has now surrendered more than 61.8% of its gains since May 2021, bringing it to one of the Fibonacci retracement levels popular among chart watchers. They tend to keep a close eye on these indicators to determine whether or not trends will extend or reverse.
What happens next is therefore crucial.
If the index remains below this point over the coming sessions, it would be a strong signal to traders that the currency’s losses are the beginning of a new longer-term downtrend, and not just an aberration.
The latest bout of weakness comes as the market now sees an end to a tightening spree that Federal Reserve officials begun communicating more than two years ago. The prospect is narrowing interest-rate differentials with other major currencies and weighing on the dollar.
This week, it dropped to the weakest level against euro and pound since early 2022. It’s even falling out of favor against the yen — where rates are still negative — with the cross falling to a two-month low.
The bearish signal seen in the chart of the Bloomberg Dollar Index could be soon validated elsewhere too. The ICE Dollar Index — a popular alternative to the BBDXY — stands just 0.6% higher than the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of a rally that kicked off in January 2021.
To be sure, options paint a more mixed picture. While long-term bets are supportive of the US currency’s prospects, sentiment over a one-month sentiment has reached its least bullish level since September 2020.
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Week Ahead - July 17thNext week, investors will focus on the earnings results from major US companies, such as Bank of America, Morgan Stanley, Goldman Sachs, IBM, Netflix, Tesla, and Johnson & Johnson. Additionally, it will be interesting to monitor retail sales, industrial production, and housing data, including existing home sales, housing starts, and building permits. In other news, China is set to release Q2 GDP growth, retail sales, industrial production, and fixed asset investments. Markets will also be attentive to inflation rates in the United Kingdom, Canada, Japan, New Zealand, and South Africa. Furthermore, the central banks of Turkey and South Africa will make decisions regarding monetary policy, Australia will publish the unemployment rate, and the UK and Canada will release retail sales data.
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bullishNote
Trade is openNote
New Evaluation Data coming out now.. Key days next week: wednesday FOMC
Friday PCE Data
GDP is unimportant
Range next week
15250-16050
Attention Grey Neutral Zone 15775 area
Short levels next week(Chat me privately in tradingview)
Buy levels Next week (Chat me private)
Take profiz for Day trading(Chat me privately)....
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Low volatility next week till friday. The pullbacks are profit takings, low trading volume and low volatility of the market makers. Trading oppurtunities are in USD FX specially USD JPY...Keep monitor them closely.
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Low volatility next week till friday. The pullbacks are profit takings, low trading volume and low volatility of the market makers. Trading oppurtunities are in USD FX specially USD JPY...Keep monitor them closely.
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Dow Rises for 11th SessionThe Dow Jones added nearly 100 points to book an 11th straight session of gains on Monday, with Chevron among the top performers (1.8%) after reporting better-than-expected earnings. Meanwhile, the S&P 500 was up about 0.3%, led by a nearly 1.5% gain for the energy sector, namely shares of Halliburton (2.5%), as oil prices touched a three-month high. On the other hand, the Nasdaq failed to hold early gains and was down about 0.2%, with Amazon (-1.2%) and Tesla (-0.7%) weighing. Investors brace for the Fed's monetary policy decision on Wednesday, with another 25bps increase in the fed funds rate already priced in, although traders will be looking for any clues on whether the Fed will stop the tightening cycle or believes further increases are still necessary. Meanwhile, the earnings season continues with about 40% of the Dow and 30% of the S&P 500 giving their financial updates during the week, including Alphabet, Meta Platforms, Microsoft, GE, 3M, General Motors, Boeing and Amazon.
US Private Sector Growth Slows to 5-Month Low
The S&P Global US Composite PMI declined to 52.0 in July 2023, down from 53.2 the previous month, as shown in a preliminary estimate. The latest reading indicated the softest pace of expansion in private sector business activity since February, with service activity growth easing to a five-month low, and manufacturing output levels remaining relatively unchanged. Total new orders rose the least since April, amid reports of constraints on client spending, including higher interest rates, while the rate of job creation was only marginal, marking the weakest level since January. On the price front, input prices increased the least since October 2020, while the rate of output charge inflation picked up as firms sought to pass through higher costs and increased interest rate payments to customers. Finally, business confidence dipped to the lowest level so far this year.
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masdaq bullish after FOMC , I bouht more nowmy target stays at 21000Next FED meeting in nov. december is much more important..
long dow jones long rty long indices and stocks
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Trade open, Inside Day, Correction probably(30%)to 15500 are(Zone)Trend Bullish
I am still long and use oppurtunities to increase more longs
Trade with the Trend.
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Ok folks its becoming seriouse JOLTS Job Openings 42.6, ISM 46.4 not too bad...tommorrow ADP, then CPI and non farm payrol:We are in an Inside session. Possible pullbacks to the sweeps: 15631; 15554;15522;15400; BELOW 15400 resting sweep stops and extreme buy pressure.. Monitor 1 minute trend, use bullish setups only if reversal confirmed....In case break up , we go to 16050,16250,16450
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Ok folks its becoming seriouse JOLTS Job Openings 42.6, ISM 46.4 not too bad...tommorrow ADP, then CPI and non farm payrol:We are in an Inside session. Possible pullbacks to the sweeps: 15631; 15554;15522;15400; BELOW 15400 resting sweep stops and extreme buy pressure.. Monitor 1 minute trend, use bullish setups only if reversal confirmed....In case break up , we go to 16050,16250,16450
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market waitig for ISM 52.7 .now bullish signal. perfectNote
Tradeplan 7.august to 11 Auustwednesday Bond aution
Thurseday CPI
Trend Bullish
Drop pullback Buy at picadelli point(Picadelli August Buy points oly for my subscribers)
Buy2: pICADELI SUPPORT ZONE AT 15...
Buy 3zone Power buy at picadelu 15...
Profit taking at 1.....
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New Buy SignalUS Credit Card Markets Head Back to Normal after Pandemic Pause
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Nasdaq SP500 Dow ReversalTrend up US 10-Year Treasury Auction Sees Decent Demand Despite Yield Under 4%
DCY down
Oil UP
Nasdaq Bullish
Dow Bullish
RTY Bullish
SP500 Bullish
Wait for CPI today. Possible Correction(I hope so that the makrket goes down first to 15000-14500) That is exactly the Gap Fill ,before Nasdaq Flies to 15850 and 16250 2nd Gap FILL)...So ge ready ,wait and watch closely the supports and resistances,better with Divergenes. In the chats and social media a lot of amateur traders are nervouse, becuz no trading experiences.So stop listening to them...Chats will cost you money. Instead relax,wait,have patience till we get the buy zones. Read comments above. I mentioned already Picadelli Points.
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Trend bullishcpi less than expected
pmi moderate expected
FED rates unchanged
DOUBLE BOTTOM
Stocha bullish again
delta bullish
Vuy at 1505-15250 zone
GAP filled
Bullish gap next to fill: 15850-19050
I bought massively at 15090 more nasdaqs
The same bias is relevant for RTY DO JONES and indices
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Trend bullishcpi less than expected
pmi moderate expected
FED rates unchanged
DOUBLE BOTTOM
Stocha bullish again
delta bullish
Vuy at 1505-15250 zone
GAP filled
Bullish gap next to fill: 15850-19050
I bought massively at 15090 more nasdaqs
The same bias is relevant for RTY DO JONES and indices
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Perfect!Gap filling i over. The bear tap wants you to jump into short selling before it rises higher..Avoide bear traps. I baought today more nasdaq at 1477514995 again. The market will go higher . Next week FOMC. Meeting. Fundamentals are bullish.Infalition going don.Next week, investors will eagerly follow the FOMC minutes release for additional insights into the Fed's plans for the remainder of the year. In the US, retail sales and industrial production will also be in the spotlight. Elsewhere, the upcoming week is poised to bring a flurry of significant economic releases, including China industrial production and retail sales; GDP and inflation for the Eurozone; Japan GDP growth and inflation; Germany economic sentiment; wholesale and consumer prices for India; inflation, unemployment and retail sales for the UK; Canada CPI; Australia unemployment data; and interest rate decisions from Norway, the Philippines and New Zealand.
Michigan Consumer Confidence Falls In August, But Beats Expectations: Declining Inflation, Resilient Job Market Key Factors
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Bitcoin's Tight Correlation With Nasdaq-SPX Ratio Muddies Safe-Haven NarrativeBitcoin,rose in tandem with the Nasdaq to S&P 500, or NDX/SPX, ratio, a sign the rally was partly, if not mainly, driven by improved risk appetite stemming from hopes for an early Federal Reserve pivot in favor of liquidity-boosting rate cuts.
The NDX/SPX ratio measures the relative difference in valuation between technology stocks represented in the Nasdaq 100 and a basket of broader industry stocks from the S&P 500. The 90-day correlation coefficient between bitcoin and the NDX/SPX ratio rose from 0.81 to 0.90, signaling the strongest positive relationship between the two assets since June 2022. At press time, the correlation coefficient stood at 0.89. The positive correlation means on days when the ratio rises, bitcoin is more likely to do the same and vice versa.
Tech stocks tend to be more sensitive to interest-rate expectations than the broader market. Thus a rising ratio is often equated with dovish Fed expectations and improved investor risk appetite that often percolates into other assets like cryptocurrencies, as observed in 2020 and early 2021. A falling ratio represents a sentiment against risky assets.
The correlation between bitcoin and the NDX/SPX ratio was consistently positive during the 2022 bear market and between May 2020 and March 2021, when the cryptocurrency rallied nearly tenfold to $60,000.
If that's not enough, both have been rallying in lockstep since early January. While bitcoin has risen nearly 70% this year, the ratio is up 11.26%.
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China 10Y Bond Yield Hits 51-week LowNote
DXY downOil UP
Nasdaq,Dow,RTY AND Tech bullish
Source: The Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s Center for Microeconomic Data
Consumers’ Inflation Expectations Decline at all Horizons, Expectations about Household Financial Situation Improve
The Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s Center for Microeconomic Data today released the July 2023 Survey of Consumer Expectations, which shows that inflation expectations declined at the short-, medium-, and longer-term horizons. Year-ahead price growth expectations for food, medical care, and rent declined to their lowest levels since at least early 2021. Labor market expectations strengthened, while households’ perceptions about their current financial situations and expectations for the future improved.
The main findings from the July 2023 Survey are:
Inflation
Median inflation expectations declined across all three horizons, falling from 3.8% to 3.5% at the one-year-ahead horizon and from 3.0% to 2.9% at both the three-year and five-year-ahead horizons.The decline at the one-year-ahead horizon was broad based across demographic groups and the July reading is the lowest since April 2021. The survey’s measure of disagreement across respondents (the difference between the 75th and 25th percentile of inflation expectations) decreased at all three horizons.
Median inflation uncertainty—or the uncertainty expressed regarding future inflation outcomes—declined at the one-year-ahead horizon and increased slightly at the three- and five-year-ahead horizons.
Median home price growth expectations decreased from 2.9% in June to 2.8% in July, remaining well above the series 12-month trailing average of 2.0%.
Median year-ahead expected price changes declined for all commodities: by 0.2 percentage point for gas (to 4.5%), 0.1 percentage point for food (to 5.2%), 0.9 percentage point for medical care (to 8.4%), 0.3 percentage point for the cost of a college education (to 8.0%), and 0.4 percentage point for rent (to 9.0%). The current readings for food, medical care, and rent are the lowest since September 2020, November 2020, and January 2021, respectively.
Labor Market
Median one-year-ahead expected earnings growth decreased by 0.2 percentage point to 2.8%. The series has been moving within a narrow range of 2.8% to 3.0% since September 2021.
Mean unemployment expectations—or the mean probability that the U.S. unemployment rate will be higher one year from now—decreased by 1.0 percentage point to 36.7%, the lowest reading since April 2022.
The mean perceived probability of losing one’s job in the next 12 months decreased by 1.1 percentage points to 11.8%. The mean probability of leaving one’s job voluntarily in the next 12 months decreased by 1.9 percentage point, to 17.0%, its lowest reading since March 2021. The decrease in the average quit probability was broad based across demographic groups.
The mean perceived probability of finding a job (if one’s current job was lost) increased from 55.3% in June to 55.8% in July.
Household Finance
Median expected growth in household income was unchanged at 3.2% in July and remains below the series 12-month trailing average of 3.6%.
Median household spending growth expectations increased from 5.2% in June to 5.4% in July, but remains well below its 12-month trailing average of 6.1%.
Perceptions of credit access compared to a year ago and expectations about credit access a year from now were largely unchanged, with a slight deterioration in current perceptions and a slight improvement in year-ahead expectations.
The average perceived probability of missing a minimum debt payment over the next three months decreased by 0.3 percentage point to 11.7% in July.
The median expectation regarding a year-ahead change in taxes (at current income level) remained unchanged at 4.3%.
Median year-ahead expected growth in government debt decreased from 10.0% in June to 9.7% in July.
The mean perceived probability that the average interest rate on saving accounts will be higher in 12 months increased by 1.1 percentage points to 30.9%.
Perceptions about households’ current financial situations improved in July with more respondents reporting being better off than a year ago and fewer respondents reporting being worse off. Similarly, year-ahead expectations improved with fewer respondents expecting to be worse off a year from now and more respondents expecting to be better off. The share expecting to be better off a year from now is the highest since September 2021.
The mean perceived probability that U.S. stock prices will be higher 12 months from now increased by 1.8 percentage points to 37.1%.
Bitcoin started its bullish trend continuation based on buying pressure of the tech industry.
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