As you can see, The Nasdaq has made two near equal peaks around the 22100 area.
Although the Weekly candles of the first and second week of February were bullish, it coincided with two weeks of declining volume, usually meaning momentum exhaustion.
On the 18th February the Nasdaq printed a strong ‘no body’ red doji on the daily TF. This is an indecision candle but can signal the beginning of a trend change.
The Green Areas show the Daily Fair Value Gaps and I’ve but a target beside the Fair Value Gaps that are currently unfilled.
If the Nasdaq breaks beneath 20500, the targets underneath this price is where I’d expect price to be drawn towards.
Also, I have highlighted some notable lows where I’d expected volatility around. I am not suggesting at that this move could in a straight line by the way. If it happens, it will happen in waves.
This is based 100% on technical analysis.
Although the Weekly candles of the first and second week of February were bullish, it coincided with two weeks of declining volume, usually meaning momentum exhaustion.
On the 18th February the Nasdaq printed a strong ‘no body’ red doji on the daily TF. This is an indecision candle but can signal the beginning of a trend change.
The Green Areas show the Daily Fair Value Gaps and I’ve but a target beside the Fair Value Gaps that are currently unfilled.
If the Nasdaq breaks beneath 20500, the targets underneath this price is where I’d expect price to be drawn towards.
Also, I have highlighted some notable lows where I’d expected volatility around. I am not suggesting at that this move could in a straight line by the way. If it happens, it will happen in waves.
This is based 100% on technical analysis.
Note
The double top neck priced at 20550, which was last months low has been hit. It took 8 days to get from the top to the bottom of the weekly range.
IMO… the double top is ON! But it is still not OFFICIALLY confirmed yet. For that, we need a classic break and retest.
As this is a major low which has been supported strongly since 16th December, we can not expect the support to be broken as easily as the fall from top to bottom.
So we wait……
Some of you might be thinking, this is an ideal opportunity to go Long….that depends on your trading style, skill level and attitude to risk.
As a swing trader, I attempt to enter trades with the least risk possible. Trading back into a range, with multiple broken structures will be tricky, choppy and unpredictable. I’d rather not… the structure is just not bullish to be looking for longs.
With 7 out of 8 red daily candles, with the one green candle engulfed on both sides…with the:
1 hour structure broken
4hour structure broken
Daily structure broken
Weekly Structure broken
Monthly Structure currently being drilled (Drill baby, Drill!)
I remain ultra bearish!
I am now waiting for a clean break underneath 20500 and retest for the continuation move.
Note
Today, the second fair value gap was filled down to ~20100. The Price is still hovering around the 20500 price level. The price structure remains bearish on all TFs up to and including the Monthly chart.Note
The NAS has now breached, retested and rejected last months low. The NAS has also Opened and Closed a Daily candle underneath last month’s low, following the rejection. There are now 3 LLLH candles on the Weekly chart…..The Double Top is on in my opinion.Note
It has been faster than I expected but we are now in the last phase of this idea.Last 1/4s low has been breached and it has retested and rejected on the 1hr chart. The next buying FVG pool of interest IMO (which is weekly) starts at 18500!
Note
After 10 days of ranging price action, the NAS is staggering up. However, I am NOT bullish. For me to bullish, I need a break and retest over last weeks high 20116. The way the price is moving, I can see and attempt to break last weeks high but this would also create a well defined double top on the daily, setting up another bearish move which would end around 18000-18250Note
It appears that the market will retest the double bottom neck to 20400 - 20500 before continuing STRONG BEARISH waves.Note
Looks like the NAS may want to set up a Max Pain event by retracing all the way back up to 21600 before making strong moves downwards. This idea should complete within the next few weeksTrade closed manually
After dumping 3000+ points to 19100, I believe that 19100 is the temporary local bottom. I anticipate a sharp reversal to 21600 - 800, which would invalidate a classic double top. Ironically, I am still ultra bearish long term but I don't believe the declines will happen in a straight line...Note
Continued trading the swings and got this so right!
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Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.