Parabolic Volatility in the Bond Market
Updated
Yield Rates represent a percentage. How much would an investor get if they invested in a US Treasury Bond.
A stable economy needs three things, at least according to the FED.
- Low Inflation
- Low Unemployment
- Strong Economy
Yield Rates are the ultimate weapon of the FED. By manipulating rates they stabilize the economy accordingly. They stimulate when they should, and they calm as needed.
A strong economy is a stable economy. Volatility in markets is bad juju.
Stability in yield rates is a matter of survival.
But it seems that we have failed in that.
The average rate-of-change in yield rates has gone parabolic over the decades.
And we are talking about 100 years. The bond market is currently in a whipsaw.
The rate / percentage yields oscillate is beyond comprehension.
Who knows what effects this will have in the years to come.
A similar picture prints in FEDs mind right now.
In absolute yield-rate terms, the average-true-range of rates has formed a bull flag.
Once again this confirms the beginning of the 1960s stagflation.
Tread lightly, for this is volatile ground.
A stable economy needs three things, at least according to the FED.
- Low Inflation
- Low Unemployment
- Strong Economy
Yield Rates are the ultimate weapon of the FED. By manipulating rates they stabilize the economy accordingly. They stimulate when they should, and they calm as needed.
A strong economy is a stable economy. Volatility in markets is bad juju.
Stability in yield rates is a matter of survival.
But it seems that we have failed in that.
The average rate-of-change in yield rates has gone parabolic over the decades.
And we are talking about 100 years. The bond market is currently in a whipsaw.
The rate / percentage yields oscillate is beyond comprehension.
Who knows what effects this will have in the years to come.
A similar picture prints in FEDs mind right now.
In absolute yield-rate terms, the average-true-range of rates has formed a bull flag.
Once again this confirms the beginning of the 1960s stagflation.
Tread lightly, for this is volatile ground.
Note
An exponential increase in yield volatility may result in the famous Dollar Milkshake Scenario. The same average-roc indicator is applied in DXY.Note
Dollar Milkshake confirmed using PnF?Flags represent targets of accumulation.
Note that this is my very first time experimenting with PnF.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.