Yield curve re-inversion vs Gold
As the yield curve re-inverts, it presents an opportunity for safe haven assets like gold to outperform. The only outlier was 1980 and 1982 when gold had already increased 800% in the few years prior due to Fed Volcker's era of runaway inflation.
Evidenced by the inverted yield curve's track record of predicting recessions, the Sahm Rule was also triggered on Friday's unemployment data. Since 1950, the Sahm Rule was able to predict a recession 10/11 times (91% chance). Every time it did predict a recession, it did so within 4 months.
Coincidentally, This time frame fits quite nicely with the 24 weeks of upside proceeding the re-inversion before the start of a bear market
Evidenced by the inverted yield curve's track record of predicting recessions, the Sahm Rule was also triggered on Friday's unemployment data. Since 1950, the Sahm Rule was able to predict a recession 10/11 times (91% chance). Every time it did predict a recession, it did so within 4 months.
Coincidentally, This time frame fits quite nicely with the 24 weeks of upside proceeding the re-inversion before the start of a bear market
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Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.