S&P500 Analysis: Could The Bear Market Be Over?
Updated
2022 was a brutal year for everybody in the stock market with the s&p declining -20% and many stocks straight up collapsing, some of you may be asking: "Is the bear market coming to an end soon?" and while i cannot be for certain due to a variety of factors, there is at least a case to be made for bulls here:
-Potential Higher Low
-Vix staying mostly sideways during the s&p's latest drop
-Potential Inverse H&S
But also something to point out is that 3800 has become a baseline for the s&p where bears have not been able to commit below this level for very long in the past, but as of recently it would appear that the level is acting as a major level of support, so watch this very carefully
(Also on a side note: During the August to October bearish wave while a lower low was created during that period of time, bears became way too exhausted at the time and were unable to make a substantially lower low to around the 3200's (maybe wicking to mid-upper 3100's), which if the wave lasted a few more weeks could have been achived)
In conculsion whether this turns out to be true or not one thing to remember is to never become complacent in this wild, volatile market, it can always turn on a dime one way or another, so be careful out there and remember that none of this is actual financial advice, just my personal opinions
-Potential Higher Low
-Vix staying mostly sideways during the s&p's latest drop
-Potential Inverse H&S
But also something to point out is that 3800 has become a baseline for the s&p where bears have not been able to commit below this level for very long in the past, but as of recently it would appear that the level is acting as a major level of support, so watch this very carefully
(Also on a side note: During the August to October bearish wave while a lower low was created during that period of time, bears became way too exhausted at the time and were unable to make a substantially lower low to around the 3200's (maybe wicking to mid-upper 3100's), which if the wave lasted a few more weeks could have been achived)
In conculsion whether this turns out to be true or not one thing to remember is to never become complacent in this wild, volatile market, it can always turn on a dime one way or another, so be careful out there and remember that none of this is actual financial advice, just my personal opinions
Note
Just a little update since the original postNote
Something interesting i've been noticing is that the Potential Bull Market has been activating in various stages, with Dow exploding in Q4'22 & Potentially could rise again in Q3'23, Nasdaq's been exploding since Q1'23, S&P beginning to ramp up in Q2'23 and could rocket higher into Q3'23, and Russell still going sideways but if the same pattern keeps going and banks truly have settled could begin ramping up in Q3 & Q4'23, Just something to keep an eye on.
Note
(Update) Vix is back to Early 2020 Lows, and S&P/Nas is fast approaching old all time highs, this has been one heck of a year where many bull theses were proven right and bears positions blew up in spectacular fashion, but risks still loom for 2024 so stay on high alert traders
Note
The overall market has been on a melt up since Nov 2022 and is at new all time highs in the Mid-5200's, i'd say this idea has aged very well
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