Long

USD/BTC | EVERY BTC TOP AND BOTTOM IS HERE

Updated

I ve been experimenting with charts for 2 years now to find the right chart to do my BTC buying. What a surprise when I found the USD/BTC chart which, in my opinion, removes all the noise from the BTCUSD charts. What you are looking for when spot accumulating BTC is to have the wind blow from your back. that ignites the bullrun. In other words, when USDBTC is rising that when a short or deep correction occurs. When it is falling, BTC is primed for a rise.

This weekly USD/BTC chart may be found just by typing USD/BTC in trading view and hit enter. No need to find the correct one from the list. You may have noticed by now, that trading view can also generate charts using math, ie combining charts together. BTC/M2 is another useful one, showing BTC Vs the Money Supply M2. All other charts imo simply create noise caused by leverage, market makers and temporary effects of news.

So, assuming that the BTC will ever be stronger than the USD (infinite USD printing vs fixed BTC supply), we may conclude that USD/BTC will break market structures to the downside every chance it gets.

This weekly chart shows that. The circled points is every time USD/BTC tops, the purple graph is BTC price going back in 2015 (further back is not useful as it provides week structure).
If one bought on these tops, together with the Stochastic RSI topping on the indicator below, its been an excellent buy!!

At the moment, USDBTC stands on the lower end of this rising wedge and seems to be breaking it. Confirmation will come in 2 days time when weekly candle closes.

I expect a small continuation to the downside, to strongly confirm the break and I wait for the retest of the wedge up. The Retest and Stoch RSI toping is my signal to go all in.

Timing is irrelevant, could be in Oct 22 or Nov 22. Bear in mind, these are weekly candles.

Also note that around 19800 is where the 5 year MA for BTC is sitting. That's supposedly BTC fair price over the past 5 years, which is always a good opportunity to buy.

Assuming no World War 3 is about to start, this may be a very solid buy.

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going as planned

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doing good
trending up to retest the falling wedge breakdown

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BINGO!

will it go higher to retest the triangle falling trend line?
FYI, this is the point to go all-in on BTC.
A second even juicier chance may arise also soon.
and a third may arise in about some months ahead.

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USDBTC heading for the major downwards trend line.
All-in opportunity no2 in just 3 days.
I expect the weekly close of this candle to be lower at the arrow mark.
This will mean that BTC will get a big jump from the current price which is @17.2k

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Stoch RSI almost there at the highs

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A reminder of the significance of this downwards trend line

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CRUNCH TIME!
USD/BTC at the highest point it can get in my opinion.
Next week will show if USD/BTC is primed for a rapid decline, which will mean that BTC will inject itself upwards

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Lets see that USD/BTC drop rapidly

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the macro picture
a 5-year resistance

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Everything going as predicted. Price overshoot a bit, but Stoch RSI on the weekly hit top and declines. Maybe we see a small bounce here for the price, which means a sharp decline in BTC to the lows of 15.5k. Maybe it will just shoot down with conviction. which subsequently means that BTC will shoot up with conviction. I incline towards the latter.

Remember, this YSD/BTC chart is the opposite of the BTCUSD chart, but much cleaner from external noise (news, FUD, leverage)

If price in this chart shoots down, then the new bullrun for BTC has officially started. At least up to the highs of the range, which is the 60k range.

There may be turbulence during the way. I expect a sharp correction in the mid run to the lows of 19-20k range.

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2 hits to the highs and USD/BTC seems to drop from here signalling the start of the bullrun.
This does not mean that BTC will shoot up in a straight line.
I expect a polite move in about 6 months to clear the lows for BTC. possibly down to the 18-20k. After that it is all up for BTC.

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Let the BTC launch begin!

weekly macro trend line hit 2 more times than expected. Now falling from the second time.

Weekly Stoch RSI hit the top some time ago and now falling down.

Let me remind that this is the USD/BTC chart, which is the opposite of the BTC?USD chart but with a lot less noise. Displays a very clear image of the market in my opinion (also history agrees)

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the moment of truth now.

BTC stands @24500 after reaching a higher high @26000.

USD/BTC should be heading to ever lower levels to validate the thesis that the downward sloping line is the start of the next BTCUSD bullrun.

Kon-v

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