Short

[Intraday Trade] USDCAD to downside

Updated

Analysis is the same as the previous trade although the entry is different due to current circumstances.
Although there was a whipsaw following the US NFP/CA Unemployment data, the price action has continued to the downside.

According to my strategy, I am entering an intraday trade. Note I was previously in a scalp trade, so I adjusted my profit targets of my scalp trade and scaled in with a swing trade.
As price action has slowed down significantly, I will manage this trade aggressively and adjust my stop loss on the scaled in trade to avoid any losses.

Additional details are included on the chart.

Note

I fell asleep overnight and woke up right after daily close. I would have like to have closed this trade off before the weekend...

Anyway, I labeled the trades in order to simplify explanations moving forward.
- A = The first scalp trade that was entered
- B - The second, scaled in intraday trade that was entered

It looks like a big part of the downward movement (7-8 pips_ happened in the last couple minutes.

Trade A reached TP1 and trade B missed TP1 by 1.5 pips.
Both trades are in healthy profits but Monday morning is my worry. Gaps could take me out of these trades at losses and low liquidity can cause huge price swings.

My plan for Monday morning will be to 1) ensure I wake up prior to weekly open to closely monitor these trades and 2) remove stop losses to avoid unnecessary losses due to gaps and huge price swings and 3) keep my finger on the close trade button in case the trades goes in the opposite direction.

Note

The markets are slow on this Superbowl Sunday (bright and early for me). But my TP1 just hit on trade B.
I was hoping it would break this order block but instead rejected...

Stops have been reset and waiting for this trade to play out.

Note

I am not liking this. Looks like a pretty strong area of support.
DXY is gaining strength too.

Strong potential for rejection at this zone.

Note

Lets see if this order block holds.

Note

If DXY can break the bullish structure, then my trades should start moving in the right direction.

From what I an see, DXY looks like it is consolidating for the next impulse down.
Unfortunately, we may not see any movement until after London session or possibly pre-market... But, in most cases, there is usually a liquidity grab prior to the move which will likely take me out of the trade.

Note

I am starting to get a little worried about this trade. Viewing DXY from 30M chart, it looks like it is consolidating from the last push down. But when you look at the 1M chart, it looks like it is consolidating from the last push up, eventually retracing to the bullish structure for a bounce up?

Regardless which way it goes, we will very likely have our answer in the next couple hours.

Note

DXY is attempting to break the bullish structure.

London open soon. Expect some movement in the markets from now on.

Note

Trade B stopped out break even.

Either this is the larger pullback that I was expecting or we may see a reversal here. Price is clearly reacting at these levels and we need to see more price action.

Note

I wasn't sure if it was just a pullback or a reversal but it seems to have been a fake out.

I did stay in the trade and TP2 on Trade A hit its target. Its a shame Trade B got stopped out though.

Note

TP3 hit on Trade A.

Trade closed manually

After the rejection of the key level and strong momentum up, I closed the trade at T3.

As I already took several profit targets, the value was quite small anyway.

AfterlifeTrading

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