USDCAD Long - Based on Recommendation
Updated
Shouldn't follow recommendations, and it is against trend!
The reasoning for me is that it is near a multi .near low at 1.2000, if breaks is likely to drop fast.
Morgan Stanley recommendation.
They think global reflation is largely priced in, US growth outperformance relative to Canadian growth (and higher US real yields) are consistent with USDCAD gains.
The BOCs taper pace and output gap projection, oil prices, US fed policy guidance. Over the next few months, we expect CAD to soften as the recent accleration in global growth hits a slower inflection point, domestic growth meets (but does not exceed) Market Expectations and US real yields rise as Fed Taper approaches. They think brent oik is unlikely to rise above $70 near term, 2y yield differentials no longer extert downward pressure on the USDCAD.
Investors and sentiment or long CAD, which is a contrarian indicator, i.e. for CAD weakness.
The reasoning for me is that it is near a multi .near low at 1.2000, if breaks is likely to drop fast.
Morgan Stanley recommendation.
They think global reflation is largely priced in, US growth outperformance relative to Canadian growth (and higher US real yields) are consistent with USDCAD gains.
The BOCs taper pace and output gap projection, oil prices, US fed policy guidance. Over the next few months, we expect CAD to soften as the recent accleration in global growth hits a slower inflection point, domestic growth meets (but does not exceed) Market Expectations and US real yields rise as Fed Taper approaches. They think brent oik is unlikely to rise above $70 near term, 2y yield differentials no longer extert downward pressure on the USDCAD.
Investors and sentiment or long CAD, which is a contrarian indicator, i.e. for CAD weakness.
Trade active
Moved SL up to 1.9390 reducing risk to 1.43% for now.Note
Positive USD data on ADP Payroll and ISM PMI both postive and looks like market is pricing in strong NFP figure tomorrow.
This is getting close to 21 EMA which may be broken to upside soon.
Wait for NFP for further USD guidance.
Trade active
All signals pointing to breakout, but NFP is estimate 650k, but 400k low and 1000k high.
Above 1000k would expect a break higher.
Trade active
So missed the Canadian Employment Change which is coming out at same time.Expected -20k, Low -150k, High 220k.
So less bullish than US NFP, a big miss below -150k would help USDCAD particularly.
Perfect storm bad CAD employment data, strong USD NFP would be fundamentally bullish, even though BOC are ahead in there tapering projections.
Trade closed manually
So both missed by a smallish margin, none came out above or below high or lows.However, seems market had priced in tapering talk, and that expectation has reduced, presumably because the economy is growing roughly to plan, so no need to taper.
Decided to close out to reduce risk for 0.51c :-) enough to cover the spread.
Note
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