US President Donald Trump’s announcements that tariffs on Canadian exports to the US will go into place as scheduled on 4 March has led to USD/CAD jumping above 1.44. With all eyes on the US administration’s tariff action, today’s Canadian GDP data is unlikely to provide much distraction, especially as (1) Q424 growth was initially seen matching the BoC’s forecast of a rebound to 1.8% QoQ saar and
(2) the initial estimate for January may have faced some seasonal distortions caused by the tax sales break and any eventual stock piling prior to tariff announcements. Therefore, USD/CAD could be poised for a much choppier start to March, than end of February. If tariffs are enacted, as seems likely, USD/CAD could risk a revisit of this month’s multi-decade high of just shy of 1.48, while if Trump flinches again, our Q125 forecast of 1.41 would remain in play.
(2) the initial estimate for January may have faced some seasonal distortions caused by the tax sales break and any eventual stock piling prior to tariff announcements. Therefore, USD/CAD could be poised for a much choppier start to March, than end of February. If tariffs are enacted, as seems likely, USD/CAD could risk a revisit of this month’s multi-decade high of just shy of 1.48, while if Trump flinches again, our Q125 forecast of 1.41 would remain in play.
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1. AccuTrade System:
tradingview.com/v/yDFPnb1J/
2. Signal Performance:
thedailyfx.com/performance/
3. We provide Free TradingView Premium and Essential Membership.
tradingview.com/v/yDFPnb1J/
2. Signal Performance:
thedailyfx.com/performance/
3. We provide Free TradingView Premium and Essential Membership.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.