U.S. Dollar / Swiss Franc
Short
Updated

USD/CHF: Range-Bound Now, Downward Ahead

181
The 1-hour chart shows that the USD/CHF rate is currently consolidating sideways between two key levels of 0.8220 and 0.8160, forming a narrow trading range. The MACD indicator shows DIFF at 0.0003, DEA at 0.0004, and MACD at -0.0002, indicating weakened short-term momentum. The RSI reading is 51.5565, in the neutral zone with no obvious overbought or oversold signals. Notably, after bottoming at 0.8115, the price rebounded but upward momentum was insufficient to break the upper resistance. Currently, the price hovers around multiple moving averages, showing market indecision.

The daily chart shows a clearer bearish pattern. Since the high of 0.9199, the price has formed an obvious downtrend and accelerated its decline recently, breaking the important support of 0.8250. The rate has fallen below all major moving averages in the chart, a strong bearish signal. The MACD indicator shows an obvious negative value, with DIFF at -0.0187, DEA at -0.0151, and MACD at -0.0072, confirming the downtrend continues. The RSI is at a low of 28.4677, suggesting the market is currently oversold and a short-term technical rebound may occur. The key support is at 0.8100. If lost, it may worsen the downtrend.

In the short term, the USD/CHF is likely to consolidate within the range of 0.8180 - 0.8220. The technical rebound triggered by the oversold condition has a target of 0.8250. However, without a shift in fundamentals or a change in the Federal Reserve's stance, the upside potential is limited.

In the medium to long term, driven by concerns about the growth of the U.S. economy, expectations of Federal Reserve interest rate cuts, and the safe - haven nature of the Swiss franc, the downward trend will continue. It may test the psychological threshold of 0.8100. If this level is broken, the next target will be the round number of 0.8000. To reverse the current downward trend, there needs to be an improvement in U.S. economic data or a significant easing of global trade relations.

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