On the last round of trading, I took USDCHF and finally made a profit, after the first two rounds of losses on tradingview paper account.
Now, another opportunity came up on USDCHF, again. Should I enter?
I think, it is really risky.
I manage to be just above breakeven on tradingview, and I made a net total of +2.8R profit on Oanda mt4 with the same trades taken, after a total of 3 trades in March 2025.
Why would I continue to put myself at risk?
1st - I have exhausted USDCHF's opportunity, I feel.
Reason being, I have already traded the USDCHF in the last trade, and I managed to make a profit. What are the odds of making a profit again? One might say it's 50 50, however, it isn't.
The more something happens, the more unlikely it would happen the next round.
That's the first.
Especially when the trend and opportunity has been used up by traders who used that opportunity in the first place.
Slowly, they would be looking to move their money elsewhere, to new opportunities.
2nd - Price is at a significant level of support.
The support might not be the major of major on the higher time frame, but it is still significant because there might be traders who think they should take off all their profits and losses and take the opposite position instead, or new players could come in and decide to buy instead at the support area, we wouldn't know.
---
The thing is, just take it and get lost.
Some months you will be breakeven, or in a loss, or profit.
Take it and move.
If you are in a loss, and you want to try to take more trades to "max out your winrate", then you will only be maxing out your mental capital, as you see alot of "deaths" and "escapes", draining you out, and that's when you deviate from your trading technique, knowingly or unknowingly.
"I have already made so many mistakes, Imma make more, just to see where it would take me to. I could always restart, because this is paper trading."
Then get ready to lose in the long run, again.
I have been there done there, even in my last trading entries I done that because I wanted to max out of winrate.
why should I take 30 trades to make +2R when I could have taken 3 trades to make +2R?
It's not to say that when you take your time, and less is more approach, you will only make +2R at the end of 30 trades, but that, why would you try to max out your win rate when you will only be depleting yourself and your time and mental capital?
If you take your time, and focus on 1 to 3 trades, and take a break, you will go further, and gain more in the end, rather than trying to max out in the same amount of time, trading 10x the amount of trades.
Opportunities come and go, and most of the time, you are taking the same opportunity at the same time on multiple different pairs. And that is over trading. Dividing your full profit over multiple pairs at a time range, and you wonder why it took you 30 trades to make +2R, when you could have held onto the +2R at the beginning, after taking just 3 trades.
We shall see how this entry setup goes.
I am not going to take it, but I want to keep myself in check with how the price is moving.
This exact overtrading thing could be said on my previous trade on USDJPY. I made +2R on USDJPY, in my first trade but I lost -1R on it, on the second trade on Oanda mt4.
If I held my breath under water instead of panicking, I would have been up, +3.8R now, instead of +2.8R on Oanda mt4, and I would have been up +1.004R on tradingview paper account instead of being up +0.004R only.
1547SGT 19032025
Now, another opportunity came up on USDCHF, again. Should I enter?
I think, it is really risky.
I manage to be just above breakeven on tradingview, and I made a net total of +2.8R profit on Oanda mt4 with the same trades taken, after a total of 3 trades in March 2025.
Why would I continue to put myself at risk?
1st - I have exhausted USDCHF's opportunity, I feel.
Reason being, I have already traded the USDCHF in the last trade, and I managed to make a profit. What are the odds of making a profit again? One might say it's 50 50, however, it isn't.
The more something happens, the more unlikely it would happen the next round.
That's the first.
Especially when the trend and opportunity has been used up by traders who used that opportunity in the first place.
Slowly, they would be looking to move their money elsewhere, to new opportunities.
2nd - Price is at a significant level of support.
The support might not be the major of major on the higher time frame, but it is still significant because there might be traders who think they should take off all their profits and losses and take the opposite position instead, or new players could come in and decide to buy instead at the support area, we wouldn't know.
---
The thing is, just take it and get lost.
Some months you will be breakeven, or in a loss, or profit.
Take it and move.
If you are in a loss, and you want to try to take more trades to "max out your winrate", then you will only be maxing out your mental capital, as you see alot of "deaths" and "escapes", draining you out, and that's when you deviate from your trading technique, knowingly or unknowingly.
"I have already made so many mistakes, Imma make more, just to see where it would take me to. I could always restart, because this is paper trading."
Then get ready to lose in the long run, again.
I have been there done there, even in my last trading entries I done that because I wanted to max out of winrate.
why should I take 30 trades to make +2R when I could have taken 3 trades to make +2R?
It's not to say that when you take your time, and less is more approach, you will only make +2R at the end of 30 trades, but that, why would you try to max out your win rate when you will only be depleting yourself and your time and mental capital?
If you take your time, and focus on 1 to 3 trades, and take a break, you will go further, and gain more in the end, rather than trying to max out in the same amount of time, trading 10x the amount of trades.
Opportunities come and go, and most of the time, you are taking the same opportunity at the same time on multiple different pairs. And that is over trading. Dividing your full profit over multiple pairs at a time range, and you wonder why it took you 30 trades to make +2R, when you could have held onto the +2R at the beginning, after taking just 3 trades.
We shall see how this entry setup goes.
I am not going to take it, but I want to keep myself in check with how the price is moving.
This exact overtrading thing could be said on my previous trade on USDJPY. I made +2R on USDJPY, in my first trade but I lost -1R on it, on the second trade on Oanda mt4.
If I held my breath under water instead of panicking, I would have been up, +3.8R now, instead of +2.8R on Oanda mt4, and I would have been up +1.004R on tradingview paper account instead of being up +0.004R only.
1547SGT 19032025
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The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
Related publications
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.