new expectation for USDILS
I wanted to update you on my expectations for the USDILS over the next three months. Based on both technical and fundamental analysis, I believe that the recent high of 3.717 may be the peak for the year. After adjusting the trendline, I anticipate the rate to reach 3.565 by mid-April, with the possibility of a slight correction above this level or a direct breakdown.
If the rate does break down by the end of April or May, then the ultimate target would be 3.462 by the beginning of June. It's worth noting that this is expected to be the lowest point the rate will reach and could be a good buying opportunity or hedge.
This view is in line with the expectations of major international firms such as Goldman Sachs, JP Morgan, and Wells Fargo, who predict that the USDILS will be around 3.46 by May and possibly lower by August and December 2024, according to Reuters Polls.
Furthermore, while the market remains uncertain, many traders believe that banking stress will prevent the FED from hiking rates much further, which could support the above view. This outlook may become clearer after the FED's meeting later this week.
Regarding the ILS, there is still uncertainty around the political situation. However, recent economic updates show that job vacancies in Israel are continuing to decrease, and the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 0.5% in February 2023. However, the outcome of judicial reforms remains uncertain
If the rate does break down by the end of April or May, then the ultimate target would be 3.462 by the beginning of June. It's worth noting that this is expected to be the lowest point the rate will reach and could be a good buying opportunity or hedge.
This view is in line with the expectations of major international firms such as Goldman Sachs, JP Morgan, and Wells Fargo, who predict that the USDILS will be around 3.46 by May and possibly lower by August and December 2024, according to Reuters Polls.
Furthermore, while the market remains uncertain, many traders believe that banking stress will prevent the FED from hiking rates much further, which could support the above view. This outlook may become clearer after the FED's meeting later this week.
Regarding the ILS, there is still uncertainty around the political situation. However, recent economic updates show that job vacancies in Israel are continuing to decrease, and the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 0.5% in February 2023. However, the outcome of judicial reforms remains uncertain
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