USDINR-Weekly Outlook-Venkat's Blog
Past week saw a steady decline from 82.47 to 81.85. As observed in the previous blog the declines are used as opportunity to hedge the Imports. A close below 82.00 favors further lower levels. The currency pair is at a crucial support. It appears that the pair seems to be in no mood to breach 81.70 on a closing basis. In such scenario we may expect a consolidation between 81.95 and 82.70. There could be choppy moves within this range. A close outside this range requires re-assessment of risk/direction and target. Market is expecting 81.70-83.10 will be protected. If appears that the same kind of yo-yo moves may continue till one more quarter if we do not see a close below 81.70.
A few more observations:
Disclaimer: The views expressed here are personal and not connected to SYFX Treasury Foundation. The views are for learning and reference purpose only.
A few more observations:
- The raising upward channel indicate the broader range of 77.10-83.30
- Neither the moves in Dollar Index-DXY nor the equity have direct correlation
- As noted in the previous blog, continue to keep the following input for quick reference.
- The 82.75-83.25(with error adjustments) zone is the Fib projection of July 2011 to July 2013. Hence, the importance. If breached, we may see another spike towards 85.70.
- This range is continuing to be protected
- Unlike in the past, the Imports (mainly the oil) are being hedged as and when there are lower prices in Oil and/or lower prices in the currency pair.
- A deeper correction is long overdue.
- May shock the exporters with swift down move
Disclaimer: The views expressed here are personal and not connected to SYFX Treasury Foundation. The views are for learning and reference purpose only.
Disclaimer
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