USDJPY has just completed a clean breakout above a well-defined descending channel on the 4H chart, signaling the beginning of a short-term bullish wave. This move reflects a technical shift in sentiment as buyers reclaim control after weeks of selling pressure. The breakout candle closed above the upper trendline, indicating a strong potential for continuation. The target zone appears to align with the previous resistance zone around 147.68, where price reacted multiple times in the past, creating a well-defined liquidity area.
From a fundamental standpoint, the dollar is regaining traction following a stabilization in U.S. Treasury yields and a slight pullback in geopolitical tensions. Market participants are also pricing in a slightly more hawkish Fed tone, as inflation remains persistent and jobless claims continue to show strength. Meanwhile, the Bank of Japan remains firmly dovish, with no indication of tightening policy anytime soon, reinforcing yen weakness and supporting the upside momentum in USDJPY.
This current price action is not just technical—it is aligned with macro drivers. The divergence in monetary policy stance between the Federal Reserve and the Bank of Japan continues to be a key bullish factor for USDJPY. As long as U.S. inflation remains sticky and Fed officials lean toward holding or even hiking rates, this pair is likely to stay supported on dips. Add to that Japan’s fragile domestic consumption outlook and persistent intervention threats, and USDJPY may find itself grinding higher toward resistance zones.
In conclusion, with the channel breakout confirmed and fundamentals favoring a bullish bias, I’m eyeing upside continuation toward 147.68. A tight stop below 140.20 makes the setup attractive in terms of risk-reward. I'll be watching price reaction at interim levels, but the structure is clean and the setup has strong confluence—perfect for capturing this short-term wave.
From a fundamental standpoint, the dollar is regaining traction following a stabilization in U.S. Treasury yields and a slight pullback in geopolitical tensions. Market participants are also pricing in a slightly more hawkish Fed tone, as inflation remains persistent and jobless claims continue to show strength. Meanwhile, the Bank of Japan remains firmly dovish, with no indication of tightening policy anytime soon, reinforcing yen weakness and supporting the upside momentum in USDJPY.
This current price action is not just technical—it is aligned with macro drivers. The divergence in monetary policy stance between the Federal Reserve and the Bank of Japan continues to be a key bullish factor for USDJPY. As long as U.S. inflation remains sticky and Fed officials lean toward holding or even hiking rates, this pair is likely to stay supported on dips. Add to that Japan’s fragile domestic consumption outlook and persistent intervention threats, and USDJPY may find itself grinding higher toward resistance zones.
In conclusion, with the channel breakout confirmed and fundamentals favoring a bullish bias, I’m eyeing upside continuation toward 147.68. A tight stop below 140.20 makes the setup attractive in terms of risk-reward. I'll be watching price reaction at interim levels, but the structure is clean and the setup has strong confluence—perfect for capturing this short-term wave.
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Join our Forex Community Telegram group and connect with thousands of traders.
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Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.