USDJPY long-term trend/wave analysis
Updated
Hi, folks.
USDJPY shows nice upward movement.
it's 1st time price climbs back above 1 std of 50 MA on weekly chart since March 2017.
I appreciate this trend will drive price further up.
1st notable resistance level is 118.7 - 1 std of 50 MA on monthly chart.
STD 5 is rising on weekly chart.
daily chart:
Long-term targets are based on fibo extensions of wave (A): 116.8, 124.3, 136.43.
Short-term targets are based on recent price action (approximate waves of smaller degree): 114.48, 117, 121.2.
don't miss this opportunity!
trade according to your system using quality risk management and reliable money management approach. good luck!
USDJPY shows nice upward movement.
it's 1st time price climbs back above 1 std of 50 MA on weekly chart since March 2017.
I appreciate this trend will drive price further up.
1st notable resistance level is 118.7 - 1 std of 50 MA on monthly chart.
STD 5 is rising on weekly chart.
daily chart:
Long-term targets are based on fibo extensions of wave (A): 116.8, 124.3, 136.43.
Short-term targets are based on recent price action (approximate waves of smaller degree): 114.48, 117, 121.2.
don't miss this opportunity!
trade according to your system using quality risk management and reliable money management approach. good luck!
Note
my sl has been executed. sad. I made only 1% profit.
let's look forward for another buying opportunity.
key support level is 112.5
Order cancelled
Price dropped below key level 112.52.Price must hold above 112.52 to continue moving uptrend.
In ohter way, price will stack into 112.5-108.9 range for a while.
Trade active
Looks like UJ is coming back.Price regains 112.52.
I’m in.
Keep ur eye on it!
Note
Took some loss.Price dropped back.
I was holding it for an hour.
If price stays below 112.52, we may use support/resistance approache and look for sell opportunities.
As I said, in this case price should cruise inside 112.5-108.9 range.
Now only daily chart remains bullish. Others are bearish or neutral.
Note
usdjpy dropped as I expected after giving up 112.52 level.
current evaluation: price is still inside correction pattern.
no big trades.
price range is 112.5-108. - key levels.
I am waiting price to break out.
ps: I made 56% in last 5 months.
2/3 of my net profits are made on gbpusd trades.
and usdjpy is my biggest looser. 43% of net losses are from usdjpy trades.
Note
greetings, tradersusdjpy still stays inside correction pattern.
price is expected to cruise inside 112.5-108 range.
last week I made a couple of nice small uj trades. including a trade after nfp.
so uj is no more my biggest loser. now uj trading outcome has net profit $. but in pips it has net loss -81 (top 3 of my losses -81, -86, -106) .
Note
looks like running flat. (a)-(b)-(c)(c)=(a)
120.8 is long term buy target (161.8% extension 104.6-111.3 wave)
Note
good night, tradersthat down swing is move what I expected.
It finishes a-b-c flat correction pattern. a=c. 110.62
it's also a nice support level (-1 std of 50 ma on daily chart).
invalidation point is price dropping below 109.8
24 hours ago I set an alarm on 110.65.
and 2 hours ago alarm and buy limits were triggered.
In the noon I was thinking about shorting uj when it was around 111.3, but price was moving so slow that I didn't click the trade.
there is also an alternative scenario.
if my assumption about running flat, which I released in previous update, is wrong, it means that entire price action since 19 july is correction and usdjpy should extend its losses much further, while forming a complete correction pattern.
Note
if a-b-c flat is done, short-term buy targets are: 111.8, 112.57, 113.8Note
Drop in equities drives jpy up.Any rise in usd is neutralized by jpy soar.
So I think usdjpy will remain sideways for long time.
audjpy is in strong downtrend.
Note
original idea: a big upward move was expected if usdjpy holds +1 std 50ma on weekly chart.if not, usdjpy should keep on hovering inside 108-112.6 price range.
usd and jpy keep on moving with big positive correlation.
price went back to 112.5-112.6 level, but it failed again to hold that crucial level. last week closed below 112.6.
what does it mean now?
until 112.6 is a resistance there is high probability usdjpy will fall again.
since mid march 2017 when usdjpy dropped below +1 std of 50 ma on weekly chart, price came back close to that level for 16 weeks, but never climbed back and managed to hold it.
look the chart.
there is 100% chance fed will hike rates on this wednesday.
everyone knows it.
so sell on the fact is expected. (according to principle buy on the rumors - sell on the fact)
also I should mention that usdjpy stays bullish on h4 and d1 charts. but neutral on mon, w, h1.
buy setup conditions for uj: 1) bullish impulse drove price significantly above 112.6 level.
2) price formed a correction pattern and broke it.
3) week closed above 112.64
Trade active
buy setupexpanding flat was formed.
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