USDJPY Insight

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Key Points
- Mary Daly, President of the San Francisco Fed, stated that monetary policy should remain restrictive until there is continued confirmation of progress on inflation. Christopher Waller, Fed Governor, also mentioned that rate cuts should be paused.
- The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) lowered its benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points from 4.35% to 4.10%, while emphasizing a cautious stance on further rate cuts.
- The U.S. and Russia have begun peace negotiations regarding Ukraine in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia.
- President Trump announced that the U.S. will impose a minimum 25% tariff on automobiles, semiconductors, and pharmaceuticals, adding pressure to the market. However, as the implementation has been delayed until March–April, this suggests room for negotiations between countries.

Key Economic Events This Week
- Feb 19: U.K. January Consumer Price Index (CPI)
- Feb 20: FOMC Meeting Minutes

USDJPY Chart Analysis
The pair recently showed an upward movement around the 151 level, but failed to break through the 154.500 level and has retreated back to the 151 range. As the previous trend has been broken, this suggests a continued medium-term downtrend, potentially extending further. The expected support level is around 149. Future movements will be reassessed based on the 149 level.

If external factors lead to a breakout above 154.500, the trend could reverse, in which case we will quickly adjust our strategy.







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