First,
In the Higher Timeframes (4Hr - Weekly), we can see that USDJPY is traveling down a Descending Channel since Jan 10th. Price tried pushing higher in March but ultimately fell back within the Channel beginning of this month (April) resulting only in a False Breakout but also creating a Fair Value Gap from 148.698 - 147.429.
Now down on the Lower Timeframes (15min - 1Hr) we can see that Price has created a Fair Value Gap from 146.546 - 146.226 with current Price Action forming a Pennant Pattern just above this FVG which lines up with Previous Highs (Past Resistance Level) and with Volume Decreasing, suggests we could see a Breakout soon! Now Based on the Pennant Pattern being Neutral meaning can break either way, creates the first 2 Bullish Scenarios being either a Breakout and Retest of the Pennant pattern going Bullish OR Bearish.
*Breakout will be Validated if followed by an Increase in Volume!
Scenario 1 -If BULLISH BREAKOUT - The Retest will come at the Falling Resistance of the Pattern.
Scenario 2 -If BEARISH BREAKOUT - This could suggest Price is looking to "Fill The Gap" being the FVG
** If Scenario 2 happens, this Price Movement could be looking to fulfill a Fibonacci Retracement of the Swing Low @ 145.041 to the Swing High @ 146.904, where the 38.2% Level lays at the Upper Limit of the FVG and the 50% Level lays at the Lower Limit of the FVG with the Consequent Encroachment right in the middle @ 146.385.
—Both of this ideas suggest USD will need to gain strength which could mean fundamentally:
FOMC Meeting Minutes on Wednesday, April 9th & CPI (Consumer Price Index), the instrument used to measure Inflation, on Thursday, April 10th released results will be heavily relied on to see if there's anymore input on potential effects of Tariffs.
Scenario 3 - Fair Value Gap Inversion could suggest bad news fundamentally is released for USD and gives JPY Bears (Sellers) the ability to pull price down, keeping Price Consolidated further within the HTF Descending Channel.
In the Higher Timeframes (4Hr - Weekly), we can see that USDJPY is traveling down a Descending Channel since Jan 10th. Price tried pushing higher in March but ultimately fell back within the Channel beginning of this month (April) resulting only in a False Breakout but also creating a Fair Value Gap from 148.698 - 147.429.
Now down on the Lower Timeframes (15min - 1Hr) we can see that Price has created a Fair Value Gap from 146.546 - 146.226 with current Price Action forming a Pennant Pattern just above this FVG which lines up with Previous Highs (Past Resistance Level) and with Volume Decreasing, suggests we could see a Breakout soon! Now Based on the Pennant Pattern being Neutral meaning can break either way, creates the first 2 Bullish Scenarios being either a Breakout and Retest of the Pennant pattern going Bullish OR Bearish.
*Breakout will be Validated if followed by an Increase in Volume!
Scenario 1 -If BULLISH BREAKOUT - The Retest will come at the Falling Resistance of the Pattern.
Scenario 2 -If BEARISH BREAKOUT - This could suggest Price is looking to "Fill The Gap" being the FVG
** If Scenario 2 happens, this Price Movement could be looking to fulfill a Fibonacci Retracement of the Swing Low @ 145.041 to the Swing High @ 146.904, where the 38.2% Level lays at the Upper Limit of the FVG and the 50% Level lays at the Lower Limit of the FVG with the Consequent Encroachment right in the middle @ 146.385.
—Both of this ideas suggest USD will need to gain strength which could mean fundamentally:
FOMC Meeting Minutes on Wednesday, April 9th & CPI (Consumer Price Index), the instrument used to measure Inflation, on Thursday, April 10th released results will be heavily relied on to see if there's anymore input on potential effects of Tariffs.
Scenario 3 - Fair Value Gap Inversion could suggest bad news fundamentally is released for USD and gives JPY Bears (Sellers) the ability to pull price down, keeping Price Consolidated further within the HTF Descending Channel.
For All Things Currency,
Keep It Current,
With Novi Fibonacci!
Novi's Trading Channel
t.me/+l3fTcsZu91ZiZDkx
Keep It Current,
With Novi Fibonacci!
Novi's Trading Channel
t.me/+l3fTcsZu91ZiZDkx
Related publications
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
For All Things Currency,
Keep It Current,
With Novi Fibonacci!
Novi's Trading Channel
t.me/+l3fTcsZu91ZiZDkx
Keep It Current,
With Novi Fibonacci!
Novi's Trading Channel
t.me/+l3fTcsZu91ZiZDkx
Related publications
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.