Current Price: 142.868
Recent Trend: Bearish correction from highs above 146.000
📊 Technical Analysis:
🔻 Bearish Structure
USD/JPY has been in a clear downtrend over the past few sessions, pulling back from the 146.000 level.
Price is currently below the pivot zone (~143.700–144.100) which previously acted as support but now flipped to resistance.
📌 Key Levels:
Type Price Level Notes
Resistance 143.700–144.100 Pivot zone & breakdown area
Support 141.300 Minor horizontal support
Support 140.000 Strong psychological and historical level
🔀 Possible Scenarios:
Bearish Continuation:
If the price fails to reclaim the pivot zone, sellers may gain control again.
Breakdown below 141.300 opens the door to 140.000 next.
Bullish Reversal:
If price holds above current support and climbs back above 143.000, we may see a test of the pivot area.
A breakout above the pivot could push USD/JPY toward 144.500–145.000.
📰 Fundamental Factors to Watch
🟢 1. US Economic Data
Yesterday’s CPI (Inflation) showed slightly hotter-than-expected numbers ➝ Fed may lean hawkish ➝ bullish for USD
PPI data today will add clarity:
If PPI > expected: Fed tightening bias increases ➝ USD stronger ➝ USD/JPY up
If PPI < expected: Dovish shift ➝ USD weakens ➝ USD/JPY down
🔴 2. BOJ (Bank of Japan) Policy Outlook
BoJ remains ultra-dovish, but recent comments hinted at long-term inflation pressures.
If any signal of tightening or less dovish talk comes out, it could strengthen the Yen and pull USD/JPY lower.
📉 3. Bond Yield Watch
US-Japan 10-year yield spread is a major driver:
If US yields rise faster → USD/JPY goes up
If US yields fall or Japan yields rise → USD/JPY goes down
🔍 Sentiment:
“The market is in wait-and-see mode, hovering just above minor support. If PPI surprises higher, USD/JPY could bounce hard. But if sentiment sours, we may retest the 141.300 or even the psychological 140.000 support. Eyes on yields and the Fed narrative.”
Recent Trend: Bearish correction from highs above 146.000
📊 Technical Analysis:
🔻 Bearish Structure
USD/JPY has been in a clear downtrend over the past few sessions, pulling back from the 146.000 level.
Price is currently below the pivot zone (~143.700–144.100) which previously acted as support but now flipped to resistance.
📌 Key Levels:
Type Price Level Notes
Resistance 143.700–144.100 Pivot zone & breakdown area
Support 141.300 Minor horizontal support
Support 140.000 Strong psychological and historical level
🔀 Possible Scenarios:
Bearish Continuation:
If the price fails to reclaim the pivot zone, sellers may gain control again.
Breakdown below 141.300 opens the door to 140.000 next.
Bullish Reversal:
If price holds above current support and climbs back above 143.000, we may see a test of the pivot area.
A breakout above the pivot could push USD/JPY toward 144.500–145.000.
📰 Fundamental Factors to Watch
🟢 1. US Economic Data
Yesterday’s CPI (Inflation) showed slightly hotter-than-expected numbers ➝ Fed may lean hawkish ➝ bullish for USD
PPI data today will add clarity:
If PPI > expected: Fed tightening bias increases ➝ USD stronger ➝ USD/JPY up
If PPI < expected: Dovish shift ➝ USD weakens ➝ USD/JPY down
🔴 2. BOJ (Bank of Japan) Policy Outlook
BoJ remains ultra-dovish, but recent comments hinted at long-term inflation pressures.
If any signal of tightening or less dovish talk comes out, it could strengthen the Yen and pull USD/JPY lower.
📉 3. Bond Yield Watch
US-Japan 10-year yield spread is a major driver:
If US yields rise faster → USD/JPY goes up
If US yields fall or Japan yields rise → USD/JPY goes down
🔍 Sentiment:
“The market is in wait-and-see mode, hovering just above minor support. If PPI surprises higher, USD/JPY could bounce hard. But if sentiment sours, we may retest the 141.300 or even the psychological 140.000 support. Eyes on yields and the Fed narrative.”
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Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
Related publications
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.