On the weekly timeframe, we can see that historically the price moves away from this downtrend line. Even when it broke above it, it returned below in 2016 is continuing to make lower highs.
TTM Squeeze is a momentum indicator. It appears that the price is going to push lower since the downward momentum is just beginning, light purple bar.
Commitment of traders, shows Commercials in white who seem to be drawing price down with short positions.
If the price drops between now and the end of 2021, it may fall to the demand zone, near $104.53. It can certainly drop lower but that is my target.
I am curious what you think regarding USD/JPY, feel free to comment below. There are many factors to consider for this trade to pan out.
This idea should not be taken as financial or investment advice.