Short

USDJPY| Breakout of a bullish channel with a target at 141.80

Analyzing the USD/JPY pair, I observe that it is consolidating losses below the 144.00 level. The Japanese Yen (JPY) has gained traction following softer-than-expected Tokyo inflation data, strengthening expectations of a more hawkish approach by the Bank of Japan (BoJ) and widening the monetary policy divergence between the BoJ and the U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed). U.S. economic data indicates a still-resilient economy, dampening hopes for more aggressive policy easing by the Fed. This supports high U.S. Treasury bond yields, benefiting the dollar. However, USD bulls seem hesitant to place aggressive bets, preferring to wait for Thursday's consumer inflation data. The Yen continues to attract buying for the second consecutive day after inflation in Tokyo remained above BoJ's 2% target. This could lead the BoJ to scale back its massive stimulus later this year, strengthening the JPY. On the other hand, the USD is weakened by expectations of a Fed rate cut in March, bolstered by a drop in U.S. consumer inflation expectations. Consequently, the USD/JPY pair has dropped below the mid-143.00s during the Asian session. Post-earthquake government stimulus measures in Japan might have delayed BoJ's shift from its ultra-accommodative stance. This, along with a positive tone around Asian equity markets, could limit any significant appreciation of the JPY as a safe haven. Investors have also scaled back expectations for more aggressive Fed policy easing, given the resilience of the U.S. economy. Recent hawkish remarks by Fed officials support high U.S. bond yields, favoring the dollar and limiting the downside for the USD/JPY pair. The upcoming U.S. CPI report might provide clarity on the timing of the Fed's potential policy easing, influencing the dollar's dynamics and determining the short-term trajectory of the USD/JPY pair. I expect a rise in the next few hours, with a rebound at the intersection of a new forming downtrend at H4 and the broken bullish channel during the Asian session, possibly leading to a short entry around 144.50 with a final target at 141.80. Let's see if the market confirms this personal view. Happy trading to all.

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