Havens generally had a significant boost from Donald Trump’s latest announcement of sweeping new tariffs, with the yen in particular showing strong overall gains in most of its pairs. Flight to safety has been the primary driver for the yen in the last couple of days. The yen’s expected higher yield later this year could now be questioned because the impact of tariffs on Japanese inflation might not be very large while exports will almost certainly be lower than previously expected. When the Bank of Japan will hike next remains a significant intrigue; September seems less certain in light of the latest developments.
¥146.50 is still the key support, last month’s low and the area of lows in March last year also. If the price breaks below there successfully, there might be significant continuation before the next possible support. However, volume has been relatively low for dollar-yen in the last couple of days compared to early March, so an immediate move lower is somewhat questionable.
A bounce above ¥149 is probably less likely still given both the technical and fundamental situation. The price couldn’t move clearly above ¥151 last month amid low volume, with the 200 SMA functioning as a dynamic resistance. As for euro-dollar, dollar-yen’s next major movement is likely to depend on the reaction to 4 April NFP. If the result isn’t particularly surprising and the trade situation remains confused, consolidation seems to be possible in the next few days.
This is my personal opinion, not the opinion of Exness. This is not a recommendation to trade.
¥146.50 is still the key support, last month’s low and the area of lows in March last year also. If the price breaks below there successfully, there might be significant continuation before the next possible support. However, volume has been relatively low for dollar-yen in the last couple of days compared to early March, so an immediate move lower is somewhat questionable.
A bounce above ¥149 is probably less likely still given both the technical and fundamental situation. The price couldn’t move clearly above ¥151 last month amid low volume, with the 200 SMA functioning as a dynamic resistance. As for euro-dollar, dollar-yen’s next major movement is likely to depend on the reaction to 4 April NFP. If the result isn’t particularly surprising and the trade situation remains confused, consolidation seems to be possible in the next few days.
This is my personal opinion, not the opinion of Exness. This is not a recommendation to trade.
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Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.