Time to Take a Dip in the Soy Sauce
Updated
After a great success with the previous SHORT (related idea below) with +260 pips...
I believe the Yen is continuing to be strong and BOJ will not be able to hide it much longer. That along with a steady Dollar that won't show much strength till later in September or toward the end of Q4 means more down.
On the technical side we are hitting the top of the Money... er Trend Channel and should see a ricochet off of it. The question will be, "Do we only go down a small amount to end up higher?" or "Do we go down much further to complete a touch of the bottom of the trend channel.
If we don't go further down check out my "Chop Sticks" Idea to see where we could go UP.
I believe the Yen is continuing to be strong and BOJ will not be able to hide it much longer. That along with a steady Dollar that won't show much strength till later in September or toward the end of Q4 means more down.
On the technical side we are hitting the top of the Money... er Trend Channel and should see a ricochet off of it. The question will be, "Do we only go down a small amount to end up higher?" or "Do we go down much further to complete a touch of the bottom of the trend channel.
If we don't go further down check out my "Chop Sticks" Idea to see where we could go UP.
Trade active
Small SHORT position already open at 103.20, but still ready to short more if there is a small bump up into the red zone on the chart.SL @ n/a for now
TP @ 100.50
Note
After we hit the red zone last week, I Shorted more bringing my average open to 103.65. I also closed out 50% of my position at 103.30 Pivot Level in the expectation to be able to short higher up.I would expect us to touch in to the red zone one more time before moving further down. 103.70 is likely to form a head and shoulders formation.
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Trade closed manually
I have closed 50% of my position after hitting the S1 pivot level. I tend to think we will move above this point during to day or tomorrow's trading sessions. At that time I will re-short and continue to target the 100.50 final TP.This morning pips taken: +87
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Trade active
I don't normally trade against my idea (SHORT), but I have had such a good run of pips last week and this morning I am taking a chance... I closed my SHORT out at 102.08 for another +22 pips.I have now gone LONG for a bounce up. I am looking at a TP of 102.80, but will be using a trailing stop of about 20 pips.
Trade closed manually
So I have been saying trade my Ideas, just don't trade my trades. ;)I wasn't wrong about a bounce up, but I excecuted it horribly. I gave up my LONG position and went SHORT around 1am last night. I ended up closing 50% of it earlier today, but am sitting in negative pips waiting to short the top of this bounce up.
To see how much UP we are going to see depends on how we break out of this purple channel and the ADX/DI indicator will help me decide how strong the trend will be.
If you are already/still SHORT, just hang on for the ride.
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Note
At this point I am thinking that the push pin candle on the Daily from yesterday will cause us to run UP a good ways. A SHORT being held now may not be the best risk. I always hate it when price goes sideways and I start to doubt the trend or price direction. Until seeing some major direction change I am leaving a small LONG in place due to the Stochastics and RSI on the 4 hour still look good for an UP swing.
Trade active
As a catch all for a dramatic drop...SHORT Entry Order at 101.30
TP 100.50
SL none
Trade closed manually
My LONG position was closed out at 102.50 for +68 pips.I also opened a small SHORT at 102.50 and will be looking to see a top from here or higher at 102.80.
Note
Sorry forgot a chart for the above comment...s3.amazonaws.com/tradingview/snapshots/o/OmhXm7eM.png
Note
Decision time is finally here... Does USDJPY blow up because of USD Index going up or does it continue to go down and head for our target price of 100.50?If we close a 4 hour candle below the white line in the chart below then I believe it is safe to assume the down trend is still in tact.
If however we bounce off the white line and head back up at another chance of the purple trend channel then we are on a road to a "LONG for LIFE"! Just take a look at a weekly chart and you will see why. Lots of room to bounce UP.
Note
Forgot the chart and to say I went full SHORT at 102.50 so am riding a +30 pip trade at the moment.s3.amazonaws.com/tradingview/snapshots/w/w5c4etyK.png
Note
My SHORT was closed out at 102.25 for +25 pips using the SuperTrend v.10 (Public Library) as my stop loss.This up movement went further than even I expected, so I did not catch any of it. I will still keep this idea open as I still have not seen anything that tells me we definitely are not reaching my target of 100.50.
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Trade active
So the LONG I tried on the other Idea was stopped out and never happened, but I have been using my SuperTrend v1.0 to catch the other side and am now... SHORT @ 102.20
SL @ 102.21 (recently moved down for risk free trade)
TP @ 100.50 (same as it has always been)
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Order cancelled
The time of Soy Sauce is over... It was good times.Note
Ugh... I shoulda waited... looks like in the next 3 hours we might see some serious Soy Sauce action.... and yes I opened a new position of 0.05 lots just to get a taste of it.
Note
Final Update... Soy Sauce did complete it's target after a lot of sideways action. Now take a look at the 'LONG for LIFE' Outlook for 2017
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