Pretty volatile few sessions in stocks and bonds of late, dragging USDJPY around, but crucially the mega resistance zone into the 151 handle held unscathed. GPIF allocations were confirmed as unchanged yesterday in line with the Nikkei leak a few weeks ago and had little impact, while the data have been generally favourable with a beat in Tokyo CPI and a solid Tankan showing sentiment holding up in Q1 and further creep in corporate inflation expectations. We still view JPY positively here, and after rounding the adverse risk of month/quarter-end, we have added to our core shorts a little here ahead of what we think could be a more hawkish delivery of reciprocals than the market is prepared for. Obviously, we have little edge here, so conviction remains modest, and we now know where we are wrong given the technical confluence on the 151 handle: 50d 151.105, multi-month pivot 151.20/30, 200d 151.52, and bottom of cloud now
152.14. US data, of course, remains very instructive to our view here, so lots of focus on NFP on Friday and the usual precursors in JOLTs and ISM today. Finally, it is worth noting that we have seen a significant amount of RM JPY selling over the past week or so, while the SHF long reductions have paused for now given the retreat in yields and USDJPY since Friday.
152.14. US data, of course, remains very instructive to our view here, so lots of focus on NFP on Friday and the usual precursors in JOLTs and ISM today. Finally, it is worth noting that we have seen a significant amount of RM JPY selling over the past week or so, while the SHF long reductions have paused for now given the retreat in yields and USDJPY since Friday.
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1. AccuTrade System:
tradingview.com/v/yDFPnb1J/
2. Signal Performance:
thedailyfx.com/performance/
3. Best Forex EA:
thedailyfx.com/beetle-ea/
4. Free Forex VPS:
myfxvps.com/get-it-free/
tradingview.com/v/yDFPnb1J/
2. Signal Performance:
thedailyfx.com/performance/
3. Best Forex EA:
thedailyfx.com/beetle-ea/
4. Free Forex VPS:
myfxvps.com/get-it-free/
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.